Trump's promises and Ukrainian realities: War endures

A moment before departure. Andrij rests his chin on the barrel of his rifle. He sits on a metal bed, already in full uniform and vest. A packed rucksack is at his feet. Time drags on, and the conversation is not very lively.

Andrij is a 38-year-old infantry soldier of the 42nd Mechanized Brigade. He is about to depart for positions in Toretsk. Intense fighting for this (once) city of 30,000 residents, located south of Bakhmut, has been ongoing since June 2024. In eight months, the Russians have managed to take control of most of the city. They have occupied the surrounding hills and most of the multi-storey buildings, which makes it easier for them to observe and continue attacking Ukrainian positions.

Andrij does not know how long his rotation on the front line will last, or even if he will make it to the front. The endless shelling and swarms of Russian drones make reaching positions more dangerous, more so than actually staying on them.

- Everyone wants the war to end, but not everyone will see it - he says quietly. That was all he had in mind.

We spoke with several soldiers and commanders fighting in Donbas. Many of them admit they would welcome news of a ceasefire with relief. However, few believe that Donald Trump will be able to stop Russia.

The war in Ukraine was one of the key themes of the election campaign in the United States. The Axios portal calculated that during the election race, Donald Trump publicly declared at least 33 times that he would end the conflict in "one day" and do so before the inauguration. These declarations raised concerns in Kyiv. Would the peace Trump talks about be fair? For soldiers, many of whom have been fighting for three years, Trump's words gave hope that they would finally be able to return home. When he won the election in November 2024, many on the Ukrainian front felt encouraged.

- Some believed that the war could end by the end of the year - says Viktor, another soldier of the 42nd Brigade.

Hopes evaporated as it became clear that Donald Trump and his new administration did not yet have a concrete plan to end the war in Ukraine. The slogan "end the war in one day" quickly evolved into "six months."

General Keith Kellogg, whom the new US president appointed as his envoy for Russia and Ukraine, recently said that he hopes to develop a "solid and sustainable" solution within 100 days. Trump himself, when asked how quickly he intends to end the war, stated that he hopes it will happen within six months. He also admitted that the situation is much more complicated.

- Those who are waiting for some magic to happen after Trump's inauguration and for the war to end will be greatly disappointed. An agreement is only possible when both sides want it. And Russia, despite suffering absurdly high losses, is satisfied with everything - says Anatoliy, one of the commanders in the staff of the 42nd Brigade.

Apart from the operation in the Kursk region, which yielded dubious results, Ukraine was on the defensive throughout 2024. Meanwhile, the Russians attacked fiercely along the entire front line in Donbas all year. In February Avdiivka fell, in October Vuhledar and Selydove, and at the beginning of January 2025, Ukrainian troops finally withdrew from Kurakhove. According to the American Institute for the Study of War, in the span of a year, the Russians occupied nearly 4,100 square kilometres of Ukrainian territory, nearly seven times more than in 2023 alone.

- The situation is critical - says outright the commander of the 93rd Brigade Cold Yar Battalion.

Currently, the brigade's units are scattered along the entire front line in Donbas. In strategically important Chasiv Yar, the Russians managed to reach elevated areas and control the town centre. In Toretsk, Ukraine is already preparing defence lines beyond the city. And fierce battles continue near Pokrovsk. The Russians stopped several kilometres from the city, attempting from there to cut off Ukrainian supply lines and close in on the city.

- It's only a matter of time before we see the fall of these cities - says "Baron," the commander of the 68th Brigade's electronic warfare unit.

According to "Baron," Russia is now throwing all reserves to complete the occupation of Toretsk, Chasiv Yar, and Pokrovsk. If this happens, it will open the way for an offensive on Slovyansk and Kramatorsk. And that’s the last major urban area in Donbas still controlled by Ukraine.

- But if you look at it globally, Pokrovsk is just a small city in the Donetsk reserve. And Russia will sacrifice thousands of men and equipment, and all it will gain is another point on the map because after the front sweeps over, only ruins will remain. It's a dubious success - Baron believes.

However, nothing indicates that Russia is ready to stop and abandon the main goal of its ongoing offensive for over a year - to complete the occupation of the Donetsk and Luhansk regions.

- The Russians will get closer, and we will prepare more defence lines. The front won't collapse, but the enemy will constantly creep forward slowly. We were ready for a sprint, and this war turned out to be a marathon - says Sviatoslav, an officer of the 42nd Brigade.

In his opinion, Trump's return to power was hyped up just like the Ukrainian offensive in 2023 was.

- Instead of honestly talking to society, we constantly build up some great hopes. Donald Trump is a populist and says what his electorate wants to hear. But what he will actually do, nobody knows - Sviatoslav emphasises.

- Serhiy, an officer of the 28th Brigade, shares a similar view: - It takes two to tango. Trump will not convince Russia to negotiate as long as it has military superiority.

Both emphasise that the rapid Russian advance on the front is caused by the lack of infantry in the Ukrainian army. While during the first two years of the invasion, Ukraine was critically short of military equipment and ammunition, now the biggest problem is people. Units fighting in Donbas are staffed, at best, at 60-70 per cent. New soldiers arriving at the front lack motivation to fight. And the experienced ones feel exhausted by the war and frustrated with the authorities in Kyiv.

- The great war has been going on for three years, and we build trenches with money from our own pockets - says the commander of an infantry unit of the 24th Brigade.

In 2024 alone, over 66,000 cases of desertion and unauthorised departure from military units were recorded.

- I see no sense in desertion, but I don't judge those who break. They've had enough - says Vasiliy, an infantry soldier.

The infantry company commander in the 42nd Brigade believes that now is the moment when everyone realises that a military victory over Russia is impossible. - Society is tired. There are no new recruits, and those who have been serving since the beginning of the invasion are exhausted. Even if we get all the equipment we need, there are no hands left to operate it.

Many soldiers believe that Ukraine missed the best moment to start negotiations. - We could have done it after the counteroffensive in 2022, and even in 2023. Now our starting positions are weak - one of the commanders of the 93rd Brigade believes.

Although negotiations with Russia do not seem achievable anytime soon, there is a growing belief on the Ukrainian front that freezing the conflict along the existing front line would be the best solution for Ukraine.

- Germany was divided, Poland was divided. Time passes, and everything weakens. Russia will eventually weaken too. And as long as the war continues, Ukraine will never develop - Viktor, an infantry soldier, believes.

- The perspective of freezing the front should not scare Ukrainians. Everyone understands that it will only be a pause before the next war. The Russians will certainly use it to renew their forces, but nothing will stop us from doing the same. Accumulate forces, develop the defence industry, and prepare for a new war in 5-10 years - says "Baron" of the 68th Brigade.

While Kyiv is still trying to convince the West that not inviting Ukraine to NATO would be a mistake, among the military, there's little faith in the power of the Alliance.

- Article 5 is as leaky as a sieve. We already had the Budapest Memorandum, which turned out to be worth less than the paper it was written on - says Serhiy of the 28th Brigade. - Concrete security guarantees, a military alliance with the UK, Poland, and the Baltic states could provide us with much greater security.

Andrij, the infantry soldier waiting to depart to the front line, just shrugs. He has no influence over the grand politics that will decide the fate of thousands of soldiers like him. On 20th January, the day of Trump's inauguration, he will spend repelling further Russian assaults in Toretsk, hoping he will be among those who see the end of the war.

Tatiana Kolesnychenko