Trump leads Biden in hypothetical election matchup, but conviction could sway voters: NBC poll
By November 2024, Americans will be deciding whether to vote for Joe Biden to remain in the White House, or to re-elect Donald Trump. The election campaign in the United States is ramping up with each passing day.
The newest nationwide poll by NBC News shows that former President Trump is leading current President Biden by five percentage points among registered voters (47% to 42%) in a hypothetical general election matchup.
However, in response to the last survey question regarding their voting choice should Trump be convicted of a crime this year, Biden leads slightly (45% to 43%).
Significant changes are found among voters who strongly supported Biden in 2020, but now lean towards voting for Donald Trump. These voters predominantly consist of young adults, Latinos, and independent voters.
US presidential election: Youth vote trends
Among voters aged 18-34, currently both Trump and Biden have an equal share of votes – 42%. In a scenario where Trump would be convicted of a crime, 47% of these voters would support Biden, leaving Trump with just 32% support.
This applies to the Latino demographic as well, where Trump is currently ahead . However, if charged and convicted, he would lose to Biden by a margin of 10 percentage points (45% to 35%).
Independent voters are leaning towards voting for Donald Trump. Even if the former president was convicted, he would maintain an 8 percentage point lead over Biden.
The last general election took place on November 3, 2020, and the Electoral College convened subsequently on December 14, 2020. During this time, Joe Biden won with 306 electoral votes to Trump's 232.
