Putin struggles to fill defence gaps as conscripts face forced deployment

Putin does not have enough soldiers to fill the gap in the defence of the Kursk region. According to experts, nearly two weeks after the invasion by the Ukrainian Armed Forces, there are still fewer Russian soldiers in the region than Ukrainian soldiers. Consequently, conscripts from other regions of Russia have started to be gathered for its defence. "People are terrified," says a representative of the "Go by the Forest" project.

"Go by the forest" is a Russian opposition project that emerged after the full-scale invasion of Ukraine. It helps Russians avoid forced conscription into the army and being sent to the front. Following Ukraine's attack on the Kursk region, thousands of conscripts have contacted volunteers, warning that they are at risk of being sent to the Kursk region.

— We are being overwhelmed with requests. We are barely managing — said Ivan Chuvilayev, spokesperson for the project, in an interview with the "Financial Times." According to him, the conscripts, who have begun to be sent to the Kursk region from other regions and their families, have started to seek help en masse.

This started in some regions but now it is clear that there is conscription mobilisation all over Russia — adds Chuvilayev.

The spokesperson indicated that a minimum of 10 units have called for conscripts, suggesting that approximately a thousand individuals have been dispatched to Kursk. It is confirmed that around 250 conscripts have been relocated from the unit in Russia's Leningrad region.

— People are terrified — he added.

Initially, the border zone was to be guarded by FSB border guards, the Chechen Akhmat battalion, and military units stationed there. According to Dara Massicot, a specialist in the Russian armed forces and a senior fellow at Carnegie Berlin Center for the Study of Russia and Eurasia, Russian command has transferred additional forces from military districts in Leningrad and Moscow, "some of them are conscripts."

No one guarding the border was prepared for the invasion of Ukrainian troops — to such an extent that even some bloggers (sympathetic to the Kremlin) accused the Chechens of "striking a deal" with the Armed Forces of Ukraine.

According to them, Akhmat deliberately allowed the Ukrainians to cross the border.

Meanwhile, a few days after the operation began, the project published a video showing dozens of prisoners of war, including Akhmat fighters. The commentary noted that the Chechens were "caught deep in the rear" and "did not even try to resist," as well as "hiding behind conscripts on the tenth line of defence near Kursk."

Numerous times, this version of events has been confirmed by conscripts who were captured at the border by Ukrainians.

— Obviously, it is not easy for Russia to plug the hole in Kursk — says Pavel Luzin, an expert on the Russian army and the military-industrial complex, a visiting senior fellow at the Centre for European Policy Analysis. — Already in the second half of 2023, military personnel from other branches of the armed forces were redirected (to Ukraine). They sent people from the navy, from the Plesetsk cosmodrome, and so on — adds Luzin.

The collapse of the defense in the Kursk region further highlights this ongoing trend. Due to a lack of personnel in the ground forces, the Ukrainian Armed Forces' offensive near Kursk is now impacting a temporary motorized rifle regiment of the Aerospace Forces. This regiment was hastily assembled from various locations across Russia, including from a nuclear strike warning station and a heavy bomber regiment, according to a source familiar with the situation within the Aerospace Forces, as reported by the "Important Stories" project.

According to Luzin, conscript soldiers, currently about 300,000, are the only significant force that can be sent to the Kursk region. Putin repeatedly assured that conscripts would not participate in the "special military operation." Only those who have served for four months and undergone special training can be sent to combat zones by law.

Chuvilayev mentioned that conscripts are being coerced into signing contracts with the Ministry of Defence, and their records are being altered to falsely reflect a longer period of service.