Ukrainian strikes on Kursk spark global surprise, change battlefield dynamics

The Ukrainian strike on the Kursk region caused surprise and consternation almost worldwide. The objectives set by the High Command for the operational group that entered Russian territory are still not entirely known.

The most likely scenario is that the Ukrainians are hoping to relieve the most threatened section of the front in Donbas, where the defence is barely holding together and may eventually break despite the tough conditions set. Especially since the Russians are making gradual progress near Toretsk and Pokrovsk.

The Kremlin assures that there is no need to withdraw units from Donbas or Kharkiv Oblast since approximately 10,000-12,000 soldiers are stationed in the Kursk region. The Chief of the General Staff of the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation, General of the Army Valery Gerasimov, omitted the information that most of them are conscripts in training and rear-echelon soldiers. Both are generally unsuitable for fighting against experienced Ukrainian brigades.

Therefore, contrary to Gerasimov's assurances, the Russians began transferring some units from Vovchansk and units from the Voronezh region. Ukrainians also noticed a slight decrease in the frequency of Russian strikes.

The Russian army in this area uses a tactic that involves attacking with a large number of troops on a very narrow section of the front, with very strong artillery support. The drawback of this tactic for the Russians is that, given their limited equipment resources, they lack the capability to attack other sections.

In the south, the Russians are still trying to bypass Ukrainian positions near the settlement in the city of Selydove. This is happening with varying success since initially, north of the village of Zhelezna, the Russians gained some ground but then had to retreat.

However, west of Pokrovsk, they captured the village of Sergeyevka, allowing them to cut off the E50 road. The Ukrainians withdrew behind the Hryshynka River, from where they are launching counterattacks.

The lack of quick successes on the front has led the Russians to start attacks on villages and towns just behind the front lines. The short distance from the front allows the Russians to even use short-range tube and rocket artillery for attacks. In Pokrovsk, a rocket fell on a market, killing at least two people and injuring 17 civilians.

However, the frequency of land attacks has decreased. On 7 August, the Ukrainians counted ten assaults. On 5 August, there were over 30. Currently, the fiercest fighting is happening in the section near Pokrovsk. Mandatory evacuation of children and the elderly is underway, ordered due to frequent Russian artillery attacks.

Ukrainians are also fiercely fighting near Toretsk, a little over 60 kilometres northeast of Pokrovsk. The city, which had over 30,000 inhabitants before the war, is defended by the 41st Independent Mechanised Brigade. The brigade was recently fighting near Chasiv Yar and was supposed to be transferred to a quieter section of the front near Toretsk. Right after crossing the positions, the Russians attacked, and quite effectively.

They captured most of the village of Novhorodske and cut the railway line connecting Novhorodske, Zalizne, and Toretsk. In turn, the Ukrainians managed to clear the village of Severnyj of Russians, allowing the defenders to even the line and regain about 2 kilometres of territory.

Since most armoured units have been withdrawn from Zaporizhzhia, the Russians have severely limited their offensive activities, hiding within the fortifications they built before last year's Ukrainian counteroffensive. The fighting has practically ceased. The Ukrainian command recorded only three clashes on 4 August near Mala Tokmachka, two attacks in the Robotyne area, and in the direction of Novodanylivka. On 8 August, there was only one near Robotyne. The day before, there was also just one clash.

However, artillery, loitering munitions, and drones are being used extensively. The head of the Zaporizhzhia Regional Military Administration, Ivan Fedorov, reported that on 8 August alone, the Russians "conducted 405 attacks on 12 settlements in the Zaporizhzhia region." Of these, a staggering 285 were carried out using various types of drones. The day before, 323 drones attacked, and Hulyaipole, Robotyne, and Mala Tokmachka were hit by 117 artillery shells. On 6 August, the Russians struck 495 times in 10 settlements in the Zaporizhzhia region, using, among other things, 278 drones.

So far, the Ukrainian attack on the Kursk region has not significantly impacted the operations in Donbas and near Vovchansk. Although the frequency of Russian attacks on key sections has slightly decreased, Putin's soldiers are still trying to advance, and the artillery has not reduced its rate of fire.

Equally well, the Russians could have ordered an operational pause after almost two weeks of continuous strikes to rotate units, resupply, and reorganise forces. Currently, there is no noticeable effect on the Donbas front from the offensive on Kursk. It might become visible in a few days if the Ukrainians introduce additional units into the breach near Sudzha and expand the bridgehead.