Ukrainian offensive in Kursk: Kyiv's stealthy strike shakes Kremlin

Since 6 August, the Ukrainian military has been conducting an offensive in the Kursk region. Ukrainian forces have reportedly taken control of 74 localities in Russia. Ukrainians entered with tanks and armoured vehicles, utilising drones, artillery, and aircraft. A Ukrainian Su-27 is said to have destroyed a Russian command facility near the town of Sudzha.

"The New York Times" claims that Kyiv kept the attack plan confidential until the end. Meanwhile, Politico and the "Wall Street Journal" report that the offensive caused the Kremlin to withdraw some troops from Ukraine to defend its territory.

- Ukrainians have already achieved at least three successes: 1. Capturing territory from which they do not intend to retreat quickly; 2. Relieving the defenders on the front in Donbas; 3. Attempting to change the Kremlin's situation, which may enable the withdrawal of Russians from Ukrainian territory – we may be witnessing the beginning of this process, comments the former ambassador.

- Ukraine’s move undoubtedly caused massive consternation in the Kremlin. The first reaction was a total surprise, and it remains so. Ukrainian troops moved in like a hot knife through butter; it’s clear that Putin was unprepared for such a scenario. There is information that Ukrainians are digging in at captured positions – this indicates that they do not intend to retreat quickly – they may stay there until peace negotiations – believes the expert.

- One direction of the assault is particularly important – the Kursk Nuclear Power Plant. He adds that this is a symmetrical action to what the Russians did by occupying the Zaporizhzhia plant. Experts from the Centre for Eastern Studies stated in their 12 August analysis that the Russians are evacuating people from border regions. They have begun building fortifications south of Kurchatov, where the power plant is.

At the beginning of the week, Vladimir Putin convened a special meeting regarding Ukraine's offensive. During the meeting, he rebuked the governor of the Kursk region, who spoke about the successes of the Ukrainian army on Russian territory. The recording was posted online.

There are also comments on the responses coming from the West. These only emerged after a few days. He believes that the restrained reaction from the West to Kyiv’s move – including assurances from the American administration that decisions about Ukrainian operations belong to Ukraine and that the U.S. was not informed about the offensive in the Kursk region – might indicate the opposite situation.

- The operation was a great tactical success; it was well-prepared and coordinated. It would be impossible without support. It is hard to imagine that the most important allies did not know about these plans. In my opinion, this is a game aimed at achieving a more complex success, with the ultimate goal of undermining Putin's power and possibly bringing about a change in the Kremlin – concludes the expert.

He also points out that the international situation is dynamic, and the red lines once drawn by the West, fearing a larger conflict (such as providing tanks and aircraft or conducting military operations only within their borders) are now obsolete.

Perhaps Kyiv’s actions are calculated – believes Jan Piekło – to cause the collapse of the Russian front, especially around Donbas, and to relieve Ukrainian defenders. – The Russians are trying to send reinforcements to the Kursk area. Information from Lithuania indicates that troops are being pulled from Kaliningrad – he says. He adds that Putin, who was counting on "brotherly help" from Belarus, miscalculated.

- There is one more significant issue. Putin, like Hitler once, is superstitious. Meanwhile, the Ukrainian operation is happening around the anniversary of the sinking of the submarine Kursk. That was Putin’s first political problem. The sailors could have been saved at that time, but he did not want help from the West, so the crew perished. Now, Kursk comes back to him in a different form – this may put a dramatic end to Vladimir Putin's political career and result in real changes in the Kremlin.