Slovak PM's energy gamble: Will Europe pay the price?
It appears that Putin gave Fico the order to open the second energy front against Ukraine at the expense of the Slovak people’s interests, Zelensky said on Saturday in a lengthy post on the X platform.
Slovak Prime Minister Robert Fico threatened Ukraine on Friday with cutting off electricity supplies if Kyiv follows through on its announcement to halt the transit of Russian gas to his country after the New Year. On 22 December, he met with Vladimir Putin in Moscow to discuss, among other issues, the matter of future gas supplies.
Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelensky responded to Prime Minister Fico's threats. In a post on the X platform, he suggested that "Putin gave Fico the order to open the second energy front against Ukraine at the expense of the Slovak people’s interests."
Both Russia and Ukraine have declared that there are no conditions for extending the transit agreement through Ukraine. However, the Prime Minister of Slovakia insists on maintaining gas transit after 2024 and says he has proposed alternative solutions that wouldn't require direct contact between the opposing nations, according to "Bloomberg".
"Second, Fico's shortsighted policy has already deprived the Slovak people of compensation for losing Russian gas transit," said Zelensky in a post on the X platform. "It now risks depriving the Slovaks of another $200 [£160] million per year, which Ukraine pays for the imported electricity."
Is Slovakia cut off? Not necessarily
Prime Minister Fico is attempting to propagate the notion that after 1 January, Slovakia will be cut off from the main gas source from the Druzhba pipeline.
Slovakia is almost entirely dependent on imported natural gas. Domestic production covers only about 1% of the demand, which averages approximately 5 billion cubic metres of gas annually.
The primary supplier is Russia, with which Slovakia has an agreement signed with Gazprom covering deliveries until 2028. The Bratislava government capitulated to Putin's demands and agreed to pay Moscow for the raw material in roubles starting in 2022. Prime Minister Fico argued to Brussels that these supplies are essential for maintaining the country's energy security. However, the European Commission responded that countries dependent on Russian gas imports had ample time to secure alternative sources.
As reported on money.pl, despite the narrative built by the government, Slovakia has expanded its cross-border connections, gaining access to the European network and potential supplies from various directions. An important supply route may be the pipeline from Germany through the Czech Republic and the network of the so-called Southern Corridor, thus a pipeline connection through Austria with LNG terminals in Croatia on the island of Krk, Greece, or Italy. There is also a connection with Poland available.
Fico's gas business
Stopping Russian supplies through Ukraine doesn't mean that the country will be left without gas. However, it directly affects the gas interests of Slovaks, who profited from the transit of Russian raw materials to the Czech Republic and onwards into Europe.
According to the Central European Institute, even before the Russian invasion of Ukraine, about 92% of the natural gas transported through Slovak territory (data from 2019) was transited and generated significant revenues.
Nonetheless, Fico attempts to argue that all of Europe will suffer from the cessation of Russian gas flow. He argued that the European Union would have to face an additional 100 billion pounds in energy costs over the next two years as a result of the transit shutdown through Ukraine. Brussels does not share this view.
"Stopping the transit of Russian natural gas through Ukraine is not just a hollow political gesture," said Fico, quoted by Bloomberg. "It’s an extremely costly move, one that we, in the European Union, will pay for," says the Slovak Prime Minister, standing firm.
