Russia's potential Baltic conflict: NATO urged to accelerate
The Danish Defence Intelligence Service has issued a warning that Russia might be prepared for a regional war in the Baltic Sea region within two years. The area is currently experiencing tension, partly due to numerous underwater incidents. "There must be an acceleration. If there isn't, the risk will increase," stated Jakub Palowski, commenting on NATO's defensive capabilities in an interview with "Fakt".
The Danish Defence Intelligence Service's report suggests that Russia could rebuild its military forces within two years if the conflict in Ukraine is either resolved or frozen. One scenario proposes that, without US involvement, Russia might take just six months to attack a NATO country.
Within this two-year period, it is anticipated that Putin and his regime could present a significant threat to one or more NATO countries, leading to a regional war involving several nations. Looking ahead five years, the Kremlin might be prepared for a larger conflict in Europe.
Russia as a threat to NATO: Experts weigh in
"Fakt" consulted experts for their views on the potential Russian threat. Jakub Palowski from Defence24.pl stressed that Russia might try to undermine NATO's unity. "The two-year perspective is significant when considering actions to disrupt NATO's cohesion," he mentioned in his interview with "Fakt". He emphasised the need for NATO to enhance its defensive capabilities dynamically.
This is not directly stated but is evident from the entire content of the report. There must be some sort of acceleration on NATO's part, on the part of the alliance. If this does not happen, the risk will grow — Palowski points out.
In contrast, reserve Commander Maksymilian Dura holds a different view. He argues that it is improbable for Russia to rebuild its forces so swiftly, especially given its ongoing involvement in Ukraine.
It will take about 7–10 years to regain what they had on 24 February 2022. In my opinion, it cannot be done sooner — the expert stated. — A war that ends with taking over a territory permanently is rather impossible in such a time frame. But that's just my opinion — believes reserve Cmdr. Dura.
A "Fakt" interviewee highlights that Russia produces a maximum of 300 tanks annually, which is inadequate given the losses sustained in Ukraine. "They produce a maximum of 300 units a year, losing that much in one month," he stresses.
The Danish intelligence report, along with expert opinions, presents various perspectives on the potential threat posed by Russia. They underline the necessity for NATO to bolster its defensive capabilities to address threats in the Baltic Sea region.
