North Korea's covert role: Soldiers and arms bolster Russia

The cooperation between Russia and North Korea is not new. In June, Vladimir Putin visited Pyongyang to establish a security partnership with North Korean leader Kim Jong Un.

Earlier, there were rumours of extensive North Korean arms supplies, particularly artillery shells. Already in 2023, Ukrainian Special Services HUR reported that a limited North Korean military contingent had arrived in the occupied territories of Ukraine.

Expert analyses and media reports are shedding more light on the increasing scope of this support. It is said that since the Russian invasion of Ukraine, North Korea has supplied Russia with arms valued between £1.4 billion and £4.5 billion, primarily artillery ammunition and short-range missiles.

Olena Guseinova from Hankuk University of Foreign Studies in Seoul cites this data in her study "Putin's Partners," conducted for the Friedrich Naumann Foundation. The researcher analysed, among other sources, leaked intelligence reports and documents.

However, North Korean dictator Kim Jong Un is not only supporting his Russian neighbour with weapons. According to NATO information, there are North Korean soldiers in Russia. They may soon relieve Russian troops in the Kursk region.

As many as 12,000 North Koreans could fight on the Russian-Ukrainian front in the coming year in exchange for urgently needed foreign currency. The Friedrich Naumann Foundation anticipates revenues of several hundred million US dollars.

The findings suggest that the soldiers, at least some of whom seem to be from special forces, have received Russian uniforms to conceal their identity. A DW fact-checking team confirmed that video footage from South Korean intelligence shows scenes in Russia's Eastern Military District. Neither Russia nor North Korea has confirmed these reports yet.

Currently, there is little concrete information and much-unspecified speculation, says Nico Lange, a senior analyst at the Munich Security Conference (MSC), in an interview with DW. "But there is no doubt that North Koreans are in Russia for training," he added. "And there is also no doubt that for some time now (...) construction units of the North Korean armed forces have been active in the occupied territories in Ukraine," he says.

However, Lange cautions that this does not automatically mean that 12,000 North Korean soldiers are fighting alongside Russians in the trenches in Ukraine. "That's not what we've been observing so far," he observes.

Nevertheless, this is a disturbing development from a Ukrainian perspective. That's why when Vladimir Putin presented himself as a respected host of the BRICS summit in Kazan last week, Kyiv grew increasingly concerned about continued support.

President Volodymyr Zelensky's so-called "victory plan" has not gained momentum. Ukraine must reckon with the possibility that Donald Trump, who wants to reduce military aid, may win the US presidential election in early November and recently even partially blamed Zelensky for Russia's invasion.

Zelensky made it clear over the weekend that his partners must respond now. "We cannot allow evil to grow. If the world remains silent now, and if we face North Korean soldiers on the front lines as regularly as we are defending against drones, it will benefit no one in this world and will only prolong this war," stressed the Ukrainian president.

The US response is currently considered decisive - after all, Washington is not only the largest supporter of Ukraine but also the protective power for South Korea. The US was also the first NATO member to speak about evidence of North Korean military presence in Russia. Beyond that, however, Defence Secretary Lloyd Austin remained reserved: "We are seeing evidence that that there are North Korean troops that have gone to Russia. What, exactly, they’re doing is left to be seen," he said in Rome.

However, this problem will likely concern primarily the term of the next US administration under Donald Trump or Kamala Harris. MSC expert Nico Lange believes that Europe will also want to wait for the US elections, which will take place on 5 November.

"At the moment, I don't see the major European states coming together to develop a common strategy: What do we want to achieve in Ukraine? How will we deal with Russia and Russia's supporters? How can we achieve this together? That's what we'd need," says Lange.

NATO's spokeswoman in Brussels stated that if North Korean troops were designated to fight in Ukraine, it would mean a significant escalation of North Korea's support for Russia's illegal war and another indicator of Russia's losses at the front. She added that the Alliance is discussing how to proceed further.

Roderich Kiesewetter, a foreign policy expert of the largest German opposition party in the Bundestag—CDU—believes that Europe's lack of response to the deployment of North Korean troops is a "fatal oversight." He added that a united and decisive reaction of force and deterrence is necessary.

In response to DW's inquiry, Kiesewetter wrote, "Many European countries have wanted this for a long time." Kiesewetter reiterated demands to lift restrictions on the range of supplied weapons, provide Ukraine with additional powerful systems, and issue an invitation to NATO.

As soon as signs of tightening Russian-North Korean cooperation began to emerge, DW spoke with Andrei Lankov, a professor of history and international relations at Kookmin University in Seoul, South Korea.

As he said, Russia can use soldiers from North Korea to avoid mobilization. "War is generally popular in Russia, but only if most people do not participate in hostilities and the war does not affect their daily lives," emphasized Lankov. In his opinion, there are fewer and fewer people in Russia who are willing to sacrifice their lives, even for the financial benefits offered by military contracts.

In return, North Korea wants money and technology. "Contract soldiers in the Russian army receive $2,000 a month plus a one-time bonus that can reach up to $20,000. Pyongyang would be happy to receive at least half of this amount for each soldier sent," says Lankov. Modern technology is equally desirable.

"Under other circumstances, Russia would never be willing to share technology with an unstable country like North Korea, but now it has no choice."

However, the expert believes this cooperation will not last. After the end of the war in Ukraine, relations will likely return to the previous level, as North Korea will cease to interest Moscow economically.