Ukraine's plea for US weapons and ammunition to counter Russian advances

On Saturday evening, the U.S. House of Representatives passed bills supporting Ukraine and other countries, including Taiwan. The value of the aid packages is about £73 billion, with almost £47 billion allocated for support for Ukraine. Over £39 billion of this sum is a fund for ammunition and weapons urgently needed by the Ukrainian army. Experts have been discussing this for months when the package was blocked in the House by Republicans inspired by Donald Trump.

Just before the vote, the commander of a Ukrainian artillery unit on the front in eastern Ukraine also spoke about it. "Without artillery ammunition, every front is doomed to failure," he recalls in an interview with Deutsche Welle. His assessment of the situation at the front is grim due to the lack of ammunition for the Ukrainian armed forces. The officer wishes to remain anonymous - DW knows his rank, last name, and position.

"The number of victims will increase because it is impossible to respond properly with fire," the officer warns.

Meanwhile, Russian aggressors can shoot from all guns: Ukrainian soldiers are covered by suppressive fire from Russian artillery. Combat aircraft bombard Ukrainian positions with cruise missiles - launched from a safe distance behind the front, out of reach of Ukrainian anti-aircraft defence, which is also increasingly lacking.

"At some point," the officer says, "we will reach a situation where no one will be able to defend the front: everyone will be dead or wounded," he states. And he adds that the result will be "loss of position and breakthrough of the front."

According to ISW estimates from mid-April, "Since the beginning of this year, Russian forces have seized over 360 square kilometres - an area the size of Detroit", the largest city in Michigan.

In the current situation, the threat of Ukraine losing to Vladimir Putin's forces is as great as at the beginning of the war in 2022. It would be so if significant weapon and ammunition deliveries from Western allies did not come. CIA Director Bill Burns and Gen. Christopher Cavoli, commander of U.S. armed forces in Europe, made this clear during appearances in Washington in mid-April.

According to American media, Burns stated that there is a very real risk that Ukrainians might lose on the battlefield by the end of 2024, at least, which could put Putin in a position where he would be able to dictate the terms of a political solution.

Decisive for Ukraine is whether the US will quickly deliver aid. It would give it a great chance to "hold on" in 2024.

The fact that the CIA director is currently talking about "holding on" suggests that Kyiv will eventually develop its own defence industry to the extent that ​​Ukraine will be able to defend itself in the longer term. With the help of the West, it will also build its own air force. Since 2023, Ukrainian pilots have been training on American F-16 fighters.

The spokesperson for the Ukrainian Air Forces did not want to respond in detail to Deutsche Welle questions about the suitability of F-16s and the progress of training Ukrainian pilots in NATO countries in Europe, such as Romania, the UK, Germany, or France. "It's a very delicate topic," the spokesperson wrote, noting that he could not say anything about it.

The commander of US forces in Europe, Gen. Christopher Cavoli, recently admitted during a visit to Washington that Ukrainian pilots often lack English language skills.

Like the CIA chief, Cavoli paints a grim picture of the situation of Ukrainians on the front. He admitted that he cannot predict the future. However, he mentioned that he understands simple math as the highest general of the United States European Command (EUCOM). He explained that from his 37 years of service in the U.S. Army, it is evident that if one side can shoot and the other cannot return fire, the side that cannot shoot back loses. The commander of U.S. forces in Europe, Gen. Christopher Cavoli, recently admitted during a visit to Washington that Ukrainian pilots often lack knowledge of the English language.

The aid package for Ukraine from the USA, blocked by Republicans for months and adopted on April 20 this year, amounts to £47 billion. In addition to money for the Ukrainian budget and economic aid, as much as £40 billion is allocated for the supply of ammunition and weapons, according to a press release from Ukrainian Prime Minister Denys Shmyhal after his recent visit to the USA.

The issue of how important rapid ammunition supplies from the USA are for Ukraine at this stage of the war is being pushed aside by reports of Ukraine's successes, especially on social media platforms. In mid-April, Ukraine boasted for the first time of shooting down a Russian supersonic bomber, Tupolev Tu-22M3. For the second time, radar positions on the Russian-occupied Crimean Peninsula, through which Moscow organizes supplies for its soldiers in the south of Ukraine, were hit.

After a visit to the front, the commander-in-chief of Ukrainian soldiers, Oleksandr Syrskyi, wrote on Telegram that Russia is focusing on "breaking through our defence west of Bakhmut and gaining access to the Donets-Donbas Channel, capturing the settlement of Chasiv Yar and creating conditions for a further march towards a larger area around Kramatorsk."

The Chasiv Yar community is located on a hill, which gives Ukrainian defenders an advantage. Syrskyi writes on Telegram that Putin ordered Russian forces to seize this position by May 9, i.e., Victory Day, when Russia grandly celebrates the USSR's victory over Nazi Germany.

In his latest analysis, German security expert and Ukraine observer Nico Lange writes that Ukraine cannot hold the front line in the east and can only delay the Russian attack.

Mainly by using drones equipped with explosives. "Drones do not replace artillery," admitted the commander of the artillery unit in eastern Ukraine, with whom DW spoke. The most important thing is whether he and his men will now receive ammunition supplies - as quickly as possible.