Russia's alleged ICBM use in Ukraine: A new threat emerges

In the attack on Ukraine on Thursday, 21st November, missiles such as the Kh-101 and Kh-47M2 Kinzhal were reportedly launched from a MiG-31K fighter jet. According to reports from Kyiv, an intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) may also have been used. However, the specific type of missile deployed by the Kremlin remains unknown. Until official statements are released by state institutions, any information regarding the use of an ICBM should be regarded as speculative.

Speaking to Wirtualna Polska, Major Michał Fiszer, a former soldier, military pilot, and expert associated with the military sector as well as a lecturer at Collegium Civitas, provided insights into the potential use of an intercontinental ballistic missile by Russia against Ukraine.

Fiszer specifically mentioned that in Thursday's attack, it was “not about the Kinzhal,” as this weapon has been used multiple times and has often encountered technical issues – failing to reach its target and falling without detonation.

However, the possible use of an intercontinental missile warrants much more scrutiny. Although the exact type isn’t clear, it is suspected to be either the Rubezh or the Topol. Both have ranges stretching thousands of kilometres. "These missiles are designed to carry nuclear warheads to Europe or America. However, the Russians might have equipped it with a conventional warhead," Fiszer noted. If the Kremlin indeed resorted to using an ICBM, it would represent the first-ever use of such a missile in combat conditions.

Fiszer emphasised that in the case of an ICBM, the concern is not with the missile's specifications, such as its range, but with the potential to carry a nuclear warhead. Currently, no reports confirm that the Russians used this technology, offering some insight into what Putin aims to achieve.

– This is a decisive form of warning against using nuclear weapons, but it is unlikely to happen – Fiszer believes. Although, according to the expert, Moscow possesses approximately 500 land-based intercontinental missiles, "Russia will not use nuclear weapons because it makes no sense whatsoever."

The military expert suggests that similar attacks may be anticipated in the future. – For now, however, Russia must wait for the outcome – he said in a conversation with Wirtualna Polska. He believes the aggressor's army will not attack frequently, “because it will become mundane.” – It is possible that as Russia phases out old Topol systems and replaces them with Rubezh ones, older missiles will be launched instead of being disposed of – he adds.

When asked about the possibility of using a nuclear warhead in an ICBM, the expert responds that the possibility cannot be ruled out. – The Russians might use nuclear power to create a chilling effect – he claims. He adds, however, that it would not be a spectacular strike but the detonation of a small charge, for example, in the Black Sea, merely to demonstrate their power.

It remains unclear what the Russians might have used in the attack on 21st November; however, if it was the RS-26 Rubezh missile, it should be noted that it is an ICBM weighing approximately 36,000 kilograms, which accelerates to speeds exceeding 24,000 km/h (approximately Mach 20). The accuracy of this weapon is estimated at about 250 metres. This is an unacceptable value for a weapon intended for precise strikes but suitable for attacks with a nuclear warhead.

The Thursday attack might also have included the Topol-M system, whose missile weighs over 47,000 kilograms and can reach a distance of approximately 11,000 kilometres. It travels at a similar speed to the RS-26, estimated at over 27,000 km/h.