Plane catastrophe: Embraer-190 shot down over Kazakhstan
The Embraer-190 passenger plane, flying from Baku to Grozny, crashed on 25th December in Kazakhstan and bears fragments characteristic of anti-aircraft missiles. It is possible that the aircraft was mistakenly shot at by one of the Pantsir-S1 systems deployed around Grozny. Let's examine what indicates this.
The Embraer-190 plane, which crashed in Kazakhstan, shows numerous fragment marks, and recordings from inside the plane appeared online just after it was hit. The crew and passengers who survived are remarkably fortunate. It seems that the missile was small or approached from behind, causing its proximity fuse to trigger an explosion behind the plane, with only a portion of the fragments hitting the aircraft.
What could have happened?
If the missile had approached from the side or was larger, the aircraft would have disintegrated in mid-air. Proximity fuses are designed to cause the explosive warhead to detonate when close to the target, usually within a few metres. They use radio waves, infrared, or laser to measure distance, and if the time between emitting a radio wave or laser beam and its reflection is short enough, detonation occurs.
Considering that depending on the size of the missile's warhead, the range of destruction can be several dozen or even several hundred metres, the hit aircraft is usually completely destroyed or severely damaged. In the case of the Embraer-190, it was likely the latter, causing the loss of part of the control surfaces, among other things.
Pantsir-S1 - The Russian drone hunter
Pantsir-S1 systems are deployed around Grozny, which during the flight of the Embraer-190, were supposed to fend off attacks by Ukrainian drones Aeroprakt A-22 (modified light aircraft) and apparently, the Russian operator mistook the Embraer-190 for a drone. Burnt boosters resembling those from two-stage 57E6 rockets were found near Grozny.
Russian Pantsir-S1 systems were introduced to the Russian Armed Forces only in 2012, even though work on them had been ongoing since the 1990s. The Pantsirs were designed as a cheaper alternative to the 2K22 Tunguska artillery-missile system. Similar cost savings were sought in France, where the new system was mounted on a truck chassis to reduce costs.
Funding difficulties nearly halted the project, but support came from the United Arab Emirates (UAE), which became interested in the promising system. Thanks to UAE investments, the project was completed, and the first Pantsir-S1 systems went to foreign clients instead of Russia. The United Arab Emirates began using this system in the early 21st century.
Pantsir-S1 is equipped with two radars, each serving a distinct role: one detects targets, and the other guides weaponry to them. Its arsenal includes two 30 mm automatic cannons capable of firing 2,500 rounds per minute and anti-aircraft missile launchers.
Limitations of the Pantsir
The gun armament allows for different types of ammunition and engages targets within a range of about 4 km. The missile component comprises 12 launchers divided into two sections of six each, which can operate simultaneously. The guided missiles are radio-command guided and can hit targets up to 19 km away, at altitudes up to 14 km. They have a 20 kg fragmentation warhead containing 5 kg of explosive material, which is sufficient for a fighter jet but possibly insufficient for a large transport or passenger aircraft.
Although the Pantsir-S1 works well against helicopters, it is not effective against small drones like the Polish Warmate or modern cruise missiles such as the Storm Shadow, which feature advanced stealth technology. It's also evident that Russians still have significant issues with object identification, as this is not the first incident of shooting down a passenger plane. Here, we can recall the case of flight MH-17 on 17th July 2014.