Putin's strategic failure: Ukraine's sovereignty persists
According to Carmen Claudin from the Barcelona Center for International Affairs (CIDOB), even if Ukraine loses part of its territory, Vladimir Putin has already failed in the war against it. An analyst emphasised that maintaining Ukraine's sovereignty signifies a defeat for the Kremlin.
Carmen Claudin, an expert on Russia, Ukraine, and the post-Soviet space at CIDOB in Barcelona, asserts that Russia has not achieved its primary objective, which was the annihilation of Ukraine. "For the time being, there is no talk of Ukraine's defeat," she emphasised in her discussion with the Polish Press Agency. Despite the potential loss of some territory, the Ukrainian state will remain free and sovereign, effectively representing Moscow's defeat "no matter how much Putin may portray it as a victory."
In Claudin's view, Ukraine's lack of security threatens Europe, particularly Eastern Europe. The analyst points out that the war situation could change with Donald Trump's victory in the United States presidential elections.
Trump's unpredictability could lead him to pursue a different policy from the one he has advocated so far, but, of course, Europe must prepare to counteract a policy that will be very beneficial to Russian interests, stated the CIDOB expert, quoted by PPA.
In her opinion, Europe needs to define a more assertive strategy. The continent may face a withdrawal of American support for Kyiv, which would necessitate greater economic and military efforts. Additionally, the expert emphasised a profound change in the European political culture, which focuses more on building peace and less on defence against external aggression.
Will Trump freeze the conflict in Ukraine?
Claudin believes that Trump's policy will not hasten the end of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict; rather, it may accelerate its stagnation. "Trump, of course, would present it as peace," the analyst stated in a conversation with PPA, adding another falsehood to his long list of parallel realities.
She suggested that in such a situation, Europeans should push for an accelerated admission of Ukraine to NATO as the only serious security agreement to counteract the illegal annexation of its territories.
Ukraine will remain threatened until a just peace is achieved, which means at least prosecuting Russian war crimes, Claudin added.
