Putin and Lukashenko reinforce the alliance with nuclear manoeuvres

During Vladimir Putin's recent visit to Minsk, the main topics of conversation with Alexander Lukashenko included nuclear weapon exercises. Although no agreements were reached, the visit had a grim tone. Moscow does not foresee the possibility of ending the conflict, writes Piotr Żochowski from the Polish OSW Centre for Eastern Studies.

At the end of last week, on May 23-24, the presidents of Russia and Belarus met in Minsk. According to the analysis by the Center for Eastern Studies, Vladimir Putin and Alexander Lukashenko focused on economic cooperation and regional security issues. However, the nature of the talks suggests that the politicians are not abandoning their confrontational course.

The Russian president emphasized that due to the tense situation on the Union State's external borders, the issue of "creating a unified defense space" was discussed. Putin also announced the conduct of Russian exercises using tactical nuclear weapons deployed on Belarusian territory.

Lukashenko indicated that these exercises respond to NATO's increasing military activity near the Belarusian border. He noted that these would be the third such manoeuvres in a row.

Piotr Żochowski assessed that the President of Russia reiterated his stance that peace talks with Ukraine can only begin if Russia's interests are considered.

Scheduled for June, the peace summit in Switzerland was deemed a propagandistic endeavour by Putin. He also questioned Volodymyr Zelensky's legitimacy as the legal president of Ukraine, according to the OSW commentary.

As the analysis's author noted in his commentary, "the Putin-Lukashenko meeting was a political theatre without any overt decisions." It confirmed "Belarus's subservient role in implementing Russian military policy and that Minsk and Moscow coordinate key issues, including military cooperation and the Belarusian regime's engagement in confrontational actions against NATO countries."

Putin's statement about the prospects of resuming peace talks with Ukraine indicates that the Kremlin has not changed its position on Kyiv's expected concessions, which include the demilitarisation of the country, change of government, and de facto takeover by Russia. Moscow does not foresee the possibility of ending the conflict even at the cost of leaving its current territorial gains, states the author of the analysis.

OSW analysts point out that "emphasising issues related to the implementation of a common security policy and border protection with NATO countries once again proves that Belarus will continue destabilising actions (including supporting the migration crisis) targeted at Poland, Lithuania, and Latvia."

The announcement of nuclear weapon exercises "constitutes a psychological operation intended to deter Belarus's neighbours from continuing policies that enhance their own security," reads the analysis.

An important element of joint actions will also be further disinformation operations indicating that NATO countries are pursuing aggressive policies that could lead to armed conflict with Belarus and Russia, reads the analysis.

Commenting on Putin's statement about the prospects for resuming peace talks with Ukraine, OSW notes that "it [the statement] indicates that the Kremlin has not changed its position on Kyiv's expected concessions, which include the demilitarisation of the country, change of government, and de facto takeover by Russia."

Moscow will strive to derail the peace summit scheduled for June in Switzerland, during which the proposal to end the war on Kyiv's terms, the so-called 10-point Peace Formula of Volodymyr Zelensky, is to be discussed, concludes the author of the analysis.