Putin replaces Shoigu, signalling a shift in war strategy and management

Vladimir Putin removed Sergey Shoigu, the head of the Ministry of Defense, from his position after 12 years. A civilian, Andrey Belousov, will replace him. "The Russian president is dissatisfied with how his two-year invasion of Ukraine was handled," writes the Financial Times. By appointing an economist, Putin silently confirmed the importance of industrial power for any military victory," adds The New York Times.

Vladimir Putin, who extended his rule until at least 2030 at the beginning of the week, on Sunday moved Sergey Shoigu, the Minister of Defense since 2012, to head the Russian Security Council.

"Putin’s appointments mark the biggest shake-up of his security officials in a decade and a half, even as his forces continue to advance against Ukraine’s outmanned, outgunned army," writes "The Financial Times".

As we read in the analysis, "Shoigu had previously been seen as a near-untouchable figure thanks to his closeness to Putin — with whom he has holidayed several times in Tuva, his home region in Siberia — and for his success in seeing off the challenge from a mutiny by mercenary leader Yevgeny Prigozhin".

The British newspaper notes that Shoigu and Valery Gerasimov (Chief of the General Staff - ed. note) "continued to arouse widespread anger among supporters of the war over the military’s many battlefield failures".

Michael Kofman, a senior fellow at the Carnegie Endowment who studies the Russian army, said that the shocks showed that "clear that Russian economic elites performed far better than military elites in this war".

The nomination of Belousov means that Gerasimov will ultimately be replaced as well. Shoigu was incompetent but loyal. The same can be said about Gerasimov. In the past, Chiefs of the General Staff were replaced by the Minister of National Defence. Although Peskov said that Gerasimov would remain, Belousov will likely want to employ his person there, added Kofman.

"The New York Times" reported that Putin removed a military man from office, who Russian pro-war commentators and Western analysts considered partly responsible for numerous Russian failures at the start of the invasion.

By appointing an economist, Putin silently confirmed the importance of industrial power for every military victory, concluded the American newspaper.

"NYT" also recalls the famous mutiny of the Wagner Group leader Yevgeny Prigozhin, who wanted to bring down Shoigu with a "march on Moscow".

The American newspaper warns that with these changes, Putin wants to signal greater readiness to introduce changes and show that Russia has the discipline and economic potential necessary for a long war.

"Shoigu was 'too big to fail'" - wrote Alexander Baunov, a senior fellow at the Carnegie Russia Eurasia Center. He added, however, that in his new role, Shoigu will be "without real command powers and without a cash box".

Shoigu was the longest-serving Minister in the Russian Federation's history and has been a constant presence in Russian politics since the fall of the Soviet Union.

"Politico" writes that the nomination of Belousov, a veteran economic advisor, to the highest position in defence is interpreted as a signal that "Putin is looking to switch gears, more than two years into the war against Ukraine and just short of a year after a failed mutiny by mercenary chief Yevgeny Prigozhin".

- This move allows Putin to keep Shoigu on side, while bringing in someone who may be able to deal with the impact of corruption across the Russian Ministry of Defense - said Philip Ingram, a former British military intelligence colonel and NATO planner.

Commenting on Shoigu's departure, British Defence Secretary Grant Shapps wrote that the long-serving official's legacy is "overseen over 355,000 casualties amongst his own soldiers and mass civilian suffering with an illegal campaign in Ukraine".

"The appointment of Belousov, a civilian official known for his economic decision-making rather than battlefield knowledge, is the biggest surprise. The change is also likely to be seen by an attempt by Putin to subject defence spending to greater scrutiny to ensure funds are effectively spent after a Shoigu ally and deputy defence minister was accused by state prosecutors of taking a bribe." - writes France24 portal.

"The Guardian" notes that Russia has led a massive increase in military-industrial production over the last two years, and total defence spending has risen to an estimated 7.5 percent of GDP.

A former defence official who worked with Shoigu, speaking to "The Guardian" on anonymity, said the Kremlin wants the ministry to be run by an economist who knows how to streamline its operations. - The defence ministry is supposed to be efficient and well run, while the actual decisions on the battlefield are left to the military - he added.

"Al Jazeera" notes that the reshuffles come at a time when thousands of Ukrainian civilians fled in the face of a renewed Russian ground offensive in the Kharkiv region in the northeast of Ukraine.

Reuters notes that Belousov, a former Minister of Economy known for his close relations with Putin, "shares the Russian leader's vision of rebuilding a strong state, and has also worked with Putin's top technocrats who want greater innovation and are open to new ideas." Belousov is credited with significant success in the Russian drone programme.

"The shake-up, which caught the elite off-guard, indicates Putin is doubling down on the Ukraine war and wants to harness more of Russia's economy for the war after the West sought, but failed so far, to sink the economy with sanctions" - writes Reuters.

- The winning strategy in this case will not be mobilisations and breakthroughs, but slow pressure on Ukraine with the superior power of the Russian military-industrial complex and the economy as a whole, which, apparently, is supposed to be made to work more effectively for the front and rear - said in a conversation with the agency Alexander Baunov, a former Russian diplomat.

Associated Press adds that Shoigu is widely seen as a key figure who contributed to Putin's decision to send Russian troops to Ukraine.

"Russia had expected the operation to quickly overwhelm Ukraine’s much smaller and less-equipped army and for Ukrainians to broadly welcome Russian troops. Instead, the conflict galvanized Ukraine to mount an intense defense, dealing the Russian army humiliating blows, including the retreat from an attempt to take the capital, Kyiv, and a counteroffensive that drove Moscow’s forces out of the Kharkiv region."