Israeli forces launch limited operation in Southern Lebanon

The "limited" ground operation is being conducted by the Israeli army in southern Lebanon. "Israeli air and artillery forces are supporting the ground forces with precise attacks on military targets," the military stated. It was added that the soldiers had been preparing for this operation for the past several months. Ground forces, artillery, and air force personnel were involved in the operations.

The goal of the Israeli military actions is to destroy the offensive capabilities of Hezbollah, which, since October 2023, has been shelling northern Israel in parallel with Hamas's attack on Israel, forcing about 100,000 Jewish state citizens to leave their homes. Israel's actions are not focused solely on border towns, as the army confirmed that it conducted an overnight shelling of the southern Beirut district of Dahieh, where several Hezbollah military sites, including a weapons production facility, were reportedly located.

"There is no doubt that we are at war. Although Israel is currently massacring Hezbollah, it cannot expect an easy crossing in southern Lebanon. Hezbollah has taken heavy hits and is weakened, but that doesn't mean it won't fight. Just on Monday morning, several rockets were fired towards Tel Aviv. Israel cannot expect any leniency," Middle East expert Paweł Rakowski told Wirtualna Polska.

As he adds, according to Israeli commentators, their forces will not want to go too deep into Lebanon for an extended period. "The Israeli army will want to create a buffer zone several kilometres deep to have an area free of Hezbollah forces. The issue might be that this area contains most of the Shia villages where the Lebanese Shia terrorist organisation Hezbollah has long been present. We can therefore expect fierce fighting. In this context, a quick ceasefire is out of the question," Rakowski believes.

According to Reserve Colonel Maciej Matysiak, former deputy head of the Military Counterintelligence Service and Stratpoints foundation expert, it is difficult to predict how long the Israeli attack will last. "One can assume that they want to ‘cleanse’ the area of Hezbollah fighters up to the Litani River, which is about 10 to 19 kilometres into Lebanon. They have already called on residents of several villages to leave their homes and have announced that they will shoot at any vehicle. They may use a ‘fire roller’ with air support," he says.

In his view, after the night attack by Israel, it seems that Hezbollah is "in disarray." "Their rocket responses are nearly non-existent. Israel expected a stronger reaction; an alarm has been declared across the country, and in Tel Aviv, residents have taken shelter," the former military officer says.

He emphasises that the Israeli operation aims to disrupt the balance of power among its adversaries. "Indirectly, it is a strike at Iran, as Hezbollah is a military arm financed by Tehran and also supported by Syria. Through shelling, Hezbollah has led to the evacuation of Israeli residents in the north of the country, near the border with Lebanon. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu stated that he would first weaken the enemy—by, among other things, killing the organisation's leaders—and then, taking advantage of its weakness, enter southern Lebanon. It is an attack on a weakened enemy but also an element of internal Israeli politics in defence of the country's residents," Col. Matysiak believes.

Let's recall, that on Friday evening, the Israeli air force conducted an attack on Hezbollah’s headquarters in Beirut. The Lebanese Ministry of Health reported that at least six people were killed, and 91 were injured. According to the Israeli army, the head of the Lebanese Shia terrorist organisation, Hasan Nasrallah, was killed in the attack. The military also added that other high-ranking Hezbollah commanders were killed in the attack. Paweł Rakowski, an expert on the Middle East, believes that the recent significant successes of Israel raise some doubts.

"Above all, Iran's stance is puzzling. There are voices that Tehran may have betrayed Hezbollah. They always talk a lot but do nothing. After recent events, Iran should be exerting military pressure on Israel. And they are evidently avoiding the war. Tehran threatened Israeli authorities every time that if Hezbollah were struck, all Iranian militias and troops would come after them. So far, only Hezbollah is fighting. The vision of an alliance between Hezbollah and Iran is slowly becoming an illusion," Paweł Rakowski assessed, an expert on the Middle East.

He also points out one other important aspect. "Moreover, the new administration of the Iranian authorities signals that it wants to make an agreement with the Americans. And it wants to return to the treaty negotiated during Barack Obama's time. Most commentators believe that if Kamala Harris wins the elections, Tehran will make a deal with Washington. That is why Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has time until 5 November, before the US presidential elections, to 'clean house,' the Wirtualna Polska interviewee believes.

In his opinion, Netanyahu will want, even at the cost of one of the Jewish holidays in October, to use the time and conduct military operations in southern Lebanon. "Also politically, because since the outbreak of war with Hamas on 7 October of last year, Israel has not been this strong. Do not expect a quick ceasefire in the conflict with Hezbollah. Israel will not quickly abandon its plans. In this scenario, it will want thousands of residents to return to their homes in northern Israel," Rakowski concludes.

Sylwester Ruszkiewicz

A million residents of Lebanon are fleeing bombings to the north of the country. The PCPM Foundation is providing assistance—supplying food, water, mattresses, and blankets. It urgently needs support as the number of fleeing families continues to grow: pcpm.org.pl/liban