Israel's Northern offensive: Risks of a broader middle east conflict

- The risk of the conflict spilling over is significant, but much depends on the operational and tactical goals set by Israel, says Dr. Marcin A. Piotrowski, an analyst at PISM. As he emphasizes, this is no longer just the "Third Lebanon War," but a conflict that is transforming into the "First Northern War."

For a week, Lebanon has been intensively bombarded by Israeli aircraft. However, on the night from Monday to Tuesday, the Israeli army crossed the border into the neighbouring country for the first time since 2006, initiating the ground operation "Northern Arrows." According to Israel, Hezbollah has turned villages in southern Lebanon into military bases to use them for a planned invasion of northern Israel, modelled after Hamas' attack on 7 October 2023, and the "limited operation" is directed precisely against this organisation.

Meanwhile, on Tuesday evening, rockets were fired from Iranian territory towards Israel, the Israeli army reported. Additionally, alarm sirens sounded throughout the country. According to various sources, Iran launched over 100 rockets.

The events of the last two days, experts tell us, are not so much about sparks over a powder keg, but rather the ignition of a short fuse that could lead to a war of much broader scope.

- The risk of the conflict spilling over is significant, but much depends on the operational and tactical goals set by Israel, believes Dr. Marcin A. Piotrowski, an analyst at the Polish Institute of International Affairs.

He adds that currently, it seems Tel Aviv intends to conduct a limited-time and scope ground operation in Lebanon to eliminate Hezbollah forces and rockets threatening northern Israel. The situation may escalate.

- Israel's determination is strengthened by the chaos within Hezbollah following a successful operation involving pagers (around 10% of its members were wounded or killed) and the successful elimination of leaders of this Lebanese and pro-Iranian militia. Together with the ground operation, Israel will likely also intensify airstrikes on Hezbollah's military and logistical infrastructure deep within Lebanon, comments the expert.

The Israeli Defence Forces reported on Tuesday that "Operation 'Northern Arrows' will continue according to the assessment of the situation and in parallel with fighting in Gaza and other arenas."

This time it will not just be the "Third Lebanon War" (the previous ones in 1982 and 2006), as Israeli aircraft will continue to destroy Iranian and pro-Iranian forces in Syria. Previous Israeli ground interventions in Lebanon were limited to ground and air actions within that country alone, notes the PISM analyst.

In parallel with the offensive in Lebanon, Israel carried out drone attacks on targets in Syria. As reported by Qatari television Al Jazeera, citing the Syrian Arab News Agency, three people were killed, and nine others were injured in Israeli drone strikes in the capital of Syria, Damascus.

The arena of Israeli military and security actions may be much broader. Israel wants to "ignite" the entire region and, after Palestine and Lebanon, will target Turkey, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan announced on Tuesday. He assured that Ankara would support the Lebanese by all available means.

This time Israel may, and even must, intensify airstrikes on Bashar al-Assad's regime forces in Syria and on pro-Iranian militia bases in Iraq and Yemen. In this sense, the operation will extend beyond Lebanon itself, and I would see the emerging conflict as Israel's "First Northern War," emphasizes Dr. Piotrowski.

The world is anxiously awaiting developments. Special attention is drawn to Iran. Already in mid-August, Tehran announced that it was ready to directly attack Israel in retaliation for the assassination of Hamas political leader Isma'il Haniyeh in Tehran.

After the killing of Hezbollah's leader, Iran's supreme spiritual and political leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei declared that Nasrallah's death "will not go unavenged" and called on Muslims to unite against the "vile regime" of Israel. These declarations materialised on Tuesday.

It should be emphasised that apart from Syria, Iran and its sponsored militias will not receive any military support from Arab countries. The Arabs are divided and mostly in conflict with Hezbollah and Iran. Lebanon itself is also religiously divided, and a renewed conflict between Lebanese Shiites and Lebanese Sunnis and Christians cannot be ruled out, notes the PISM expert.

However, the fact that Iran possesses significant oil and gas resources and has the ability to control the Strait of Hormuz gives it a powerful economic weapon.

As Dr. Piotrowski explains, the "First Northern War" would be a severe test for Iran's influence and the so-called axis of resistance it has built over the past two decades against Israel and the USA. I do not expect Iran to actively and directly participate in it. For example, by repeating large-scale rocket attacks on Israel as in April this year. Iran will try to avoid a pretext for Israeli retaliatory strikes on its territory and drawing the USA into a regional war, he assesses.

There is no doubt, however, that Iran must restore its tarnished prestige and image, so, in his view, it will continue to encourage and coordinate rocket attacks from Iraq and Yemen on Israel.

There is also a greater likelihood that Iranian Revolutionary Guards and Hezbollah terrorist cells will attempt attacks on Israeli embassies or consulates in retaliation for Nasrallah's death. However, I would not expect bloody terrorist attacks against targets other than Israeli ones. Such spectacular attacks would ruin Iran's chances of resuming nuclear talks and lifting severe US and EU sanctions, which Tehran's authorities seek, explains the expert

In fact, 20% of the world's oil trade passes through the territorial waters of the Strait of Hormuz, and a crisis in this region could shake markets.

- For the same reasons, there is no immediate threat of a military blockade of the Persian Gulf by Iran, but an increase in attacks by Yemeni Houthi militias on civilian ships in the Red Sea is possible again, notes Dr. Piotrowski.