F‑16 loss in Ukraine: Pilot error suspected amidst fierce combat

Ukraine has lost the first of the F-16 aircraft provided to it. The cause of the loss and the death of the experienced pilot was not – most likely – due to a Russian shootdown. Experts suggest a possible pilot error, highlighting the exceptionally challenging conditions Ukrainian aviators are forced to contend with.

The first information about the Ukrainian loss surfaced on Monday when the Mayor of Lutsk reported the death of pilot Oleksiy Mes from the 204th Tactical Aviation Brigade.

According to Defence24, he was a pilot who had previously flown MiG-29s but was part of the first group trained on the F-16. The fact of the pilot's death under the control of an F-16 was later confirmed by American media, citing sources within the American administration and the Ukrainian Armed Forces.

The cause of the pilot's death and the loss of the aircraft was not – most likely – a Russian shootdown (though Ukrainian sources may differ), but rather a pilot error.

During his last flight, Oleksiy Mes was involved in repelling a strong Russian attack conducted using various types of drones, missiles, and cruise missiles.

As we had previously assumed, one of the roles assigned to the F-16 aircraft provided by the West is to support the country's air defence directly. This includes relieving ground-based systems by combating targets that the aircraft can destroy, such as cruise missiles. Oleksiy Mes was reported to have destroyed one of the attacking drones and three cruise missiles.

Jakub Palowski from Defence24 noted that the loss of the aircraft and the pilot’s death in the crash are likely due to several factors. One of these is the shortened training period for Ukrainian pilots. Whereas American pilots may receive up to two years of training, Ukrainian pilots have undergone only a few months.

Another contributing factor to crashes is the nature of the combat. Ukrainian pilots currently lack weapons that would enable them to engage in long-distance fights, at ranges of about 160-200 kilometres from which they can be attacked, among others, by Russian MiG-31 aircraft.

This necessitates a specific operational strategy, increasing the risk of losing aircraft due to lower flight altitudes imposed by constant threats. The Russian advantage in this area is partially mitigated by the ECIPS/CJS electronic warfare pods provided with the F-16s, making destroying these valuable machines more difficult.