Europe's call to arms: 300,000 soldiers needed against Russia
According to the Bruegel Institute, Europe will need 300,000 additional soldiers and an increase in defence spending of at least 215 billion pounds annually to deter Russian aggression and compensate for the USA's withdrawal.
Europe was surprised by America's international policy shift under Donald Trump. Discussions with Russia are causing concern among EU leaders. The Bruegel Institute has estimated the costs the European Union must bear to balance the loss of American support for Ukraine and the protective umbrella over the continent.
The Bruegel Institute assesses that Europe can supply Ukraine with additional weaponry to maintain its combat capabilities and offset the decrease in US support.
Although Ukraine and the EU depend on some critical American strategic support, including intelligence and satellite communications, these are challenging to replace in the short term. However, analysts note that substitutes do exist if necessary.
From a macroeconomic standpoint, these figures are small enough for Europe to compensate for U.S. support's absence fully. Since February 2022, the United States has provided £55 billion in military aid to Ukraine, while Europe, including the United Kingdom, has contributed £53 billion. In 2024, American military assistance accounted for £17 billion out of £36 billion. Consequently, replacing U.S. support would require the EU to allocate just an additional 0.12% of its GDP—an amount deemed feasible. However, the report states that the more pressing issue is whether Europe could achieve this without relying on the American military-industrial base.
50 new brigades needed
Securing the Community against Russia's growing threat is a much more serious issue. According to the Bruegel Institute, if Europe had to defend itself independently, it would require 300,000 additional soldiers in the short term. A crucial component would be mechanised and armoured forces, necessitating the creation of around 50 new European brigades.
Analysts point out that Europe, including the United Kingdom, currently has 1.47 million active-duty soldiers (SIPRI, 2024), but the absence of a unified command reduces overall effectiveness. NATO's structure is based on the principle that the Supreme Allied Commander in Europe is the highest-ranking U.S. general. This system relies on U.S. leadership and strategic support to function effectively.
Higher defence spending
At the same time, defence spending will need to increase by at least £215 billion annually. The institute notes that, from a macroeconomic perspective, funding this increase through debt could boost European economic activity, particularly as external demand faces potential challenges due to an impending trade war.
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