Europe fortifies missile arsenal amid rising Russian threats

The Russian medium-range (MRBM) or intermediate-range (IRBM—and its range is deemed to be on the conventional boundary) missile Oresznik struck overnight from 20 to 21 November at a presumably deserted ballistic missile factory in the Ukrainian city of Dnipro. This was a Russian counter-reaction to the US allowing the use of ATACMS aerobalistic missiles supplied to Ukraine against targets in Russian territory, albeit within a restricted geographical area.

These developments triggered a cascade of subsequent actions: Ukrainians began targeting sites in Russia, demolishing, among other things, modern Russian S-400 air defence systems (likely using older, shorter-range ATACMS) or unspecified targets. The Russians retaliated by launching—according to Vladimir Putin—approximately 100 assorted missiles against Ukrainian targets.

The Russian president escalated matters, once again threatening with the Oresznik—an assault with a number of missiles would be "akin to a nuclear attack." This may imply that the Russians are hesitant to deploy nuclear weapons against Ukraine, possibly fearing the repercussions. Nonetheless, Russia possesses nuclear weapons, alongside the difficult-to-intercept Oresznik, cruise missiles and Iskanders. Europe does not wish to remain passive in the face of this menace.

Currently, Europe's capabilities for striking over distances above 300 kilometres are quite modest. The most significant system is the French NCM missile and the Franco-British Storm Shadow, closely associated with the NCM. The former is, however, a naval missile, part of the armament of FREMM-type missile frigates and nuclear-powered Suffren-class submarines, limiting the number of missiles that can be launched concurrently.

The missile is reputed to have a range of up to 1,400 kilometres and carry a warhead weighing 250 kilograms (according to some sources even 300 kilograms). Despite lacking a nuclear warhead, it is regarded by Paris as a strategic weapon. Similarly, the Storm Shadow missile (known in France as SCALP-EG) is an air-launched missile, deployed in Ukraine from Su-24 bombers adapted for this purpose. The missile boasts a heavier warhead (450 kilograms) but a shorter range (550 kilometres), and the use of stealth technology facilitates its covert operations.

The French Air Force also possesses the truly strategic ASMP-A missile. It is a component of France's nuclear deterrence capability (alongside the M51 family of naval ballistic missiles). With a range of about 500 kilometres and reaching approximately three times the speed of sound, ASMP-A aims to wreak devastation upon the adversaries of France and its allies. It is carried by suitably adapted multirole Rafale aircraft, whose pilots routinely train for strategic strikes.

During one of the exercises in the Durandal Operation series in May this year, a successful test of the latest ASMPA-R variant (with a range of about 1,000 kilometres) was conducted. After 2035, it will be succeeded by the ASN4G with greater range and speed. Additionally, there is the German Taurus KEPD 350 missile, recently noted mainly for Berlin's refusal to supply it to Ukraine. This elusive air-launched missile, weighing 1,400 kilograms (including a 480-kilogram warhead), has a range above 500 kilometres and was conceived to obliterate bunkers and other "hardened" targets with the formidable MEPHISTO warhead. A common trait of the aforementioned missiles is their limited numbers.

The scenario is even grimmer concerning ballistic missiles. Aside from the American ATACMS (and recently the South Korean CTM-290) with limited range (as well as the French and British SLBM), Europe has none whatsoever.

Ukraine was closest to deploying them, where the Luch Design Bureau developed a promising Grom-2/Sapsan ballistic missile, with a range of up to 500 kilometres (or 300 kilometres in the export version). The 500-kilogram warhead was meant to deliver adequate destructive power, but the Russian invasion has thwarted, or at least significantly impeded, the commencement of serial production.

Poland is also working on technologies related to ballistic missiles, though these are likely of shorter range. The most notable achievements belong to a consortium consisting of: Wojskowe Zakłady Lotnicze No. 1 S.A., the Military Institute of Armament Technology, and the Special Production Facility "Gamrat" Sp. z o.o. They have developed successful engines with diameters of 30 centimetres and 60 centimetres, which could power rocket missiles; however, funding for their further development is lacking.

There is hope for conquering the deficiency and creating European medium-range strike means within the ELSA program. The initiative, launched during the July NATO summit, intends to develop systems capable of penetrating deep into hostile territory, equipping European armies with a tool that might serve as a deterrent of nearly strategic magnitude.

The short-term solution is likely to be the MBDA LCM missile, a land variant of the NCM missile, featuring only minor modifications. It requires the development of a land-based launcher and an entire "system" associated with target designation, missile transport, secure launching, logistics, and more. New missiles will be developed in the future. The programme involves France (the natural leader), Italy, Germany, Poland, Sweden, the United Kingdom, and the Netherlands.

Britain and France (recently with Italy's involvement) are also jointly designing a successor to Storm Shadow missiles, as well as Exocet and Harpoon anti-ship missiles. Under the FC/ASW (Future Cruise/Anti-Ship Weapon) programme, running since 2017, two distinct missiles are being developed.

The first, temporarily designated TP15, is intended to be a hard-to-detect subsonic missile for destroying terrestrial targets (while retaining the capability to attack moving ships). A prototype of this missile, measuring 5 metres in length, has already been produced.

The second missile, RJ10, is to have a ramjet engine. It aspires to attain high supersonic speeds and will mainly target maritime objectives, but will also be used to dismantle enemy air defences. Its propulsion system has already been tested. Both missiles will have versions deployable from both ships and aircraft.

Concurrently, Germany is collaborating with Norway on the 3SM (SuperSonic Strike Missile) Tyrfing missile. It is intended to augment subsequent variants of the NSM missile (also employed by our Navy), surpassing it in both range (800-1,000 kilometres) and speed (2-3 times the speed of sound). It is chiefly planned for Type 212CD submarines.

The latest innovation is a French project for a ballistic missile with a range exceeding 1,000 kilometres, classifying it as an MRBM. This is seen as a French reaction to Oresznik's combat test. Currently, there are only exploratory studies in this area, but the French industry possesses the required expertise to develop such a missile. It is thus difficult to predict if the programme will commence, and if so, whether it will be incorporated into the ELSA European project and shared with allies. Should a nuclear warhead be developed for it, this would result in France's re-entry into the elite club of nations with a genuine nuclear triad.

All the aforementioned systems are relatively costly weapons. Even with the prevailing high defence expenditures, their availability will be restricted. So why not complement these advanced future capabilities with a more budget-friendly solution? At MSPO 2024, the Polish company WB Group showcased the latest, largest member of the Warmate family: the Warmate 50.

It is effectively a light cruise missile powered by a combustion engine. It can deliver a 50-kilogram warhead over a distance of about 1,000 kilometres. Not every target behind enemy lines necessitates deploying a substantial warhead weighing 200–500 kilograms. Therefore, the Warmate 50 could be viewed as a potential mass-produced, cost-effective yet efficacious complement to the expensive and more advanced but less readily available missiles.