CDU/CSU slips as AfD rises: Shifting dynamics before vote
Two days before the Bundestag elections, the CDU/CSU Christian Democrats are losing support, while the Alternative for Germany (AfD) is gaining popularity, according to a Politbarometer Extra poll for ZDF.
Two days before the German parliamentary elections, the CDU/CSU Christian Democrats see their support drop below 30%. According to the Politbarometer Extra poll for ZDF, the Christian Democratic party bloc can expect 28% of the votes, marking a decrease of 2 percentage points compared to the previous week. Meanwhile, the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) gains 1 percentage point, reaching 21%.
AfD gaining popularity: Poll results two days before the elections
The Social Democratic SPD is maintaining its support at 16%, and the Green Party is at 14%. Neither group experienced changes compared to previous results. The Left gained 1 percentage point, reaching 8% support.
The liberal FDP and the radically left Sahra Wagenknecht Alliance fell below the electoral threshold, each with 4.5%, marking a 0.5 percentage point increase compared to last week.
German media emphasize that the only viable two-party coalition seems to be an alliance between the CDU/CSU and SPD, as the Christian Democrats and Greens would not achieve a majority in the Bundestag. An alternative could be a CDU/CSU, SPD, and Greens coalition. Other configurations are unlikely, as the Christian Democrats exclude cooperation with the Left, and all moderate parties reject the possibility of an alliance with the AfD.
Voter preferences for chancellor
Regarding preferences for the next chancellor, 32% of respondents indicated Friedrich Merz from the CDU/CSU, a decrease of 1 percentage point. Robert Habeck from the Greens obtained 21% (-3 percentage points), Olaf Scholz from the SPD received 18% (+1 percentage point), and Alice Weidel from the AfD got 14%. Fifteen percent of respondents did not indicate any candidate, marking a 3 percentage point increase.
In the previous parliamentary elections 2021, the SPD obtained 25.7%, CDU/CSU 24.2%, Greens 14.7%, FDP 11.4%, AfD 10.4%, the Left 4.9%, and other parties combined 8.7%. The upcoming Bundestag elections will take place on Sunday.
