American election nightmares: Fear and division take center stage

For Trump and his supporters – especially the most fervent ones – the horror was the last four years of Biden's administration. A Harris victory, for them, is a guarantee that America will sink even deeper into a nightmare. Meanwhile, for Democratic voters, the scenario of a second term for Trump looks like something out of a horror film.

Both candidates tried to galvanise their supporters by appealing to these fears. They attempted to present themselves as someone who can not only remove their sources but also restore hope to America. At the same time, fearful, deeply negative tones dominated this campaign – on both sides.

Undoubtedly, Trump's Sunday rally at Madison Square Garden in New York was filled with such sentiments, an event treated as the symbolic closing of the Republican campaign.

Media coverage of the event was dominated by the performance of a right-wing comedian from Texas, Tony Hinchcliffe, who during his stand-up routine called Puerto Rico "a floating trash island in the middle of the ocean". The comedian's "joke" sparked widespread outrage in the United States, especially among Puerto Rican Americans – a group that could decide electoral battles in several key districts for Republican control over the future Congress and in Pennsylvania, a state capable of determining the victory in this year's presidential elections.

Hinchcliffe was not the only speaker at MSG using similar rhetoric, drawing on racist stereotypes. Tucker Carlson – the former Fox News star – mocked Kamala Harris, calling her a "Samoan-Malaysian former prosecutor from California with low IQ." David Rem, a former Republican congressional candidate introduced as "Trump's childhood friend," waved a cross from the stage, calling the Democratic candidate "the Antichrist."

Trump also struck truly apocalyptic tones on Sunday in New York. "We are an occupied country today," he warned, presenting a vision of America controlled by groups of dangerous illegal migrants.

"Kamala brought illegal migrants from prisons, psychiatric hospitals, and asylums from around the world, from Venezuela to Congo. […] She settled them among American communities, where they pose a threat to innocent American citizens," Trump whipped himself into a frenzy, arguing further that a "murderous prison gang from Venezuela" already terrorises the city of Aurora in Colorado and will soon take control of New York's Times Square.

Trump repeatedly used similar rhetoric in his campaign, claiming during a televised debate with Kamala Harris, for example, that immigrants from Haiti "eat dogs and cats" in the town of Springfield in Ohio. The media have often pointed out that such statements are simply untrue and, at best, based on distortions and half-truths.

However, this has not harmed the Republican candidate in any way. His supporters inherently distrust the media, and similar rhetoric – even if it doesn't necessarily fit their empirical experiences – caters to their deep emotional needs.

Simultaneously, after the MSG rally, many commentators wondered whether Trump and the speakers before him overstepped with aggressive rhetoric and whether the event in New York just cost the Republican the victory. However, these considerations were overshadowed by an extremely unfortunate statement by President Biden, who claimed that the real trash is not Puerto Ricans, but Trump voters.

The topic quickly ceased to be the racist language of the Republican's New York rally and instead became the contempt Democrats supposedly hold for people voting for their political opponents. Trump was able to skillfully exploit Biden's gaffe by arriving at a campaign event in Wisconsin, one of the key states for this year's presidential race, in a rubbish truck. Moreover, wearing a refuse collector's vest. The photos immediately spread through all the media, along with Trump's message.

In some sense, what happened to the discussion around the MSG rally was characteristic of this campaign. It unfolded at an extraordinary pace as if the entire American public opinion suffered from a concentration deficit disorder and was unable to focus longer on any topic. Events that were supposed to decide the outcome of the elections quickly became yesterday's news.

This was the case with the failed assassination attempt on Trump in Butler in Pennsylvania. Photos of Trump surrounded by Secret Service agents trying to get him out of the line of fire, raising a clenched fist in a battle gesture, were supposed to decide the outcome of the elections. In the meantime, Joe Biden, however, withdrew from the race, and Harris's campaign quickly gathered the Democratic Party around her, briefly inspiring enthusiasm among her activists. Meanwhile, the public mostly forgot about the Butler incident.

This radical shortening of the information cycle is connected with a clearly diminishing role of traditional media in this election. Although Biden's campaign was buried by an unsuccessful presidential debate with Trump – a traditional television format reaching back to the roots of the 1960s – later in the campaign, the candidates sought other channels to connect with supporters than television. For instance, popular YouTubers and podcasters who reached audiences practically not using traditional news media.

For Trump's campaign, his three-hour appearance on Joe Rogan's podcast could have been more significant than any interview with a major television channel. By Thursday, 31 October, the episode with Trump had over 31.5 million views on YouTube, and this number will likely rise by the end of the campaign.

Traditional media, as in 2016, still struggle with the alternative informational reality that Trump creates around himself. A sad symbol of their helplessness against the Republican became the situation in "The Washington Post." The newspaper's editorial board prepared a statement supporting Harris's candidacy (in the United States, unlike in Poland, large media outlets typically openly declare their support for a specific candidate in elections). However, its publication was halted by the newspaper's owner, one of the richest people in the world, Jeff Bezos.

According to media reports, the reason was fear of Amazon losing lucrative government contracts in the event of a Trump victory. In response, many readers cancelled their newspaper subscriptions. They were disgusted that a paper that once stood up to Nixon and revealed the Watergate scandal would now back down from Trump.

The enthusiasm sparked in the Democratic base by replacing Biden with Kamala Harris quickly became outdated. Today, there is no trace of it among the Democratic activists, let alone in the polls. Democratic strategists could count in the summer that the vice president's campaign would unleash similar energy as Obama's first campaign in 2008.

At that time, the party's electorate was electrified by the possibility of making a historic choice of the first Black president in US history, contributing to historic change and, in some sense, atoning for the historic sins of American slavery, segregation, and racial discrimination. The prospect of choosing the first biracial woman did not, however, cause a similar effect.

In recent months, Harris's campaign relied on two pillars. The first was the fear of a second Trump term. Democrats consistently tried to show how extreme Trump's programme for a second term is, reminding people that the former president is a lawfully convicted criminal, a person who, for moral reasons, should not even be considered for the highest offices in the country. In the final stretch of the campaign, there were even comparisons of Trump to Nazis and Hitler.

The Democrats, in their warnings, have many valid points. Trump has done much to be considered morally unfit to hold the highest state offices. Many of his proposals – promises of revenge on opponents, using the military to "restore order" in Democrat-run cities, or mass deportations of migrants – understandably raise concern.

A second Trump term – if he wins – will be a major test for American institutions. It will show how effective they are at restraining the authoritarian tendencies of the head of state. Even if Trump doesn't dismantle American liberal democracy in a similar way as the admired by Trumpists Orbán did in Hungary, it will make it more authoritarian, unpredictable, brutal. Certainly, just as in the first term, he will govern in the interest of his class, billionaires, and millionaires, offering beneficial tax cuts, deregulations, and access to government money in exchange for political loyalty. Support from billionaires like Musk doesn't come free; the American middle class will pay for it.

On the other hand, as polls show, fearmongering about Trump – however substantively accurate it might be – works to a limited extent. Democrats are aware of this, hence the second pillar of Harris's campaign, the attempt to present her as a competent politician. A politician who – unlike Trump, who talks about migrants eating dogs – is aware of the problems of ordinary Americans and knows how to address them.

And this has proven somewhat effective. In recent polls, Harris begins to be seen as more competent on economic issues than Trump – and the economy will be the most important issue in these elections alongside abortion, which also favours the Democrat.

Simultaneously, Harris has not articulated in these elections a compelling, forward-looking vision of America under her leadership. This partly results from the character of this politician, who has always focused more on gradual solutions to specific problems rather than grand visions. At the same time, it is difficult to understand why Democrats have been unable to leverage the economic achievements of the Biden administration in the campaign. There is, indeed, much to brag about, as Biden has launched an ambitious industrial policy, creating opportunities also for Americans without a college diploma.

Harris has gathered a very broad coalition in these elections, stretching from disenchanted Trump Republicans – like Bush Jr.'s Vice President Dick Cheney or former Republican California Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger – to the left wing of the Democratic Party led by Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez and Senator Bernie Sanders. The question is how strong this broad coalition will prove and whether its individual members will mobilise to the extent necessary for a Democratic victory.

Polls show that Democrats may have difficulty mobilising several groups of voters they need to win. Trump – despite his sometimes outright racist language – is doing surprisingly well among young black and Latino men.

Among Americans of Arab descent – a group significant for outcomes in such crucial states in these elections as Michigan – Harris, according to polls, has support 18 percentage points lower than Biden did in 2020. The reason is, of course, the Biden administration's policy on the war in Gaza. It also discourages part of the American left from voting for Harris, especially the youngest generation.

Whoever wins will take power in a deeply divided country. "What has divided us – it won't come together anymore" – these words from Jarosław Marek Rymkiewicz's poem "To Jarosław Kaczyński" also describe the American reality. Today, there seems to be no chance of gluing it together with a Harris presidency, not to mention a second Trump presidency.

On the Wednesday after the election, Halloween will be long over, but half of Americans will wake up in a reality they will perceive as a horror.