Election Nostradamus predicts Harris's triumph despite a tight race
A few days before the elections, Donald Trump and Kamala Harris have very similar support in the polls. Meanwhile, Prof. Allan Lichtman — known in the USA as the "election Nostradamus" — has no doubts: the Democratic candidate will win. He presents specific arguments to support this thesis.
In his presidential forecasts, Lichtman has not been wrong even once since 1984. He predicted, among other things, Trump's victory in 2016, although most polls at the time indicated a win for his rival, Hillary Clinton.
Lichtman argues that his accuracy is ensured by using the method he created, the "13 Keys to the White House". These are 13 criteria through which the expert assesses the strength of the ruling party.
Six of the 13 keys must be against the ruling party to predict its defeat, and at this moment, "That's four keys down," - says Lichtman.
- The White House party (Democrats) loses key 1, the mandate key, because they lost US House seats in 2022. They lost key number 3, the incumbency key, because the sitting president's not running. They lose key number 12, the incumbent charisma key, because what you may think of Harris, she's only been a candidate for a little while. She's not reached the status of a Franklin Roosevelt. And she loses key number 11, the foreign policy failure key, because the Middle East is a disaster, a humanitarian crisis with no good end in sight," - the professor lists.
Election prophecies in the USA. "Junk science"
Experts are sceptical about Prof. Lichtman's method. - "I think [it is] an example of kind of the replication crisis and kind of junk science - stated Nate Silver, an election data expert, in the "New York Post".
Meanwhile, Harris and Trump are neck and neck in the polls. On Tuesday, CNN published the results of a survey conducted in Nevada and Arizona—states where early voting is already underway.
In Nevada, 52% of voters cast their vote for Trump, and 46% for Harris. In Arizona, Trump received 44%, and Harris 53%. CNN forecasts that the final results in these two states will be close to a tie.
The elections in the United States will be held on Tuesday, 5th November.
