Xi Jinping's European tour: A strategic move amidst diplomatic tensions

The visit will extend until May 10. This marks Xi's first European journey since 2019, when he visited France, Italy, and Monaco.

Dr. Brona highlights the symbolic significance of Xi Jinping's visit to Serbia, coinciding with the 25th anniversary of the NATO bombing of the Chinese embassy in Belgrade during the Kosovo war intervention on May 7. The attack resulted in the death of three Chinese nationals. "This incident has significantly impacted Chinese politics. In Chinese commentary, NATO is often depicted as an anachronism from the Cold War, deemed unsuitable for the modern era and accused of being more harmful than beneficial globally," the expert remarked.

According to Dr. Brona, Hungary is the most China-friendly EU member state. While Budapest frequently hinders the formation of a unified EU stance towards China, it also signals to Brussels the presence of a strong political ally outside the Union.

"Xi's meeting with Prime Minister Viktor Orban is meant to demonstrate that China values political loyalty and that continued cooperation can be advantageous," Dr Brona explains.

"Hungary could serve as Plan B for China," the lecturer from Jagiellonian University suggests. He explains that if the EU implements anti-dumping tariffs on electric vehicle production, Chinese corporations could relocate their factories to Hungary, circumventing EU tariffs. Thus, it's highly likely that Xi Jinping's Budapest visit will culminate in the signing of new investment agreements.

In response to whether Hungary and Serbia could be considered China’s loyalists, he stated that both countries refrain from criticizing Chinese policies, including human rights issues in Xinjiang, the political system overhaul in Hong Kong, and curtailment of freedoms there. "Serbia and Hungary are, to a degree, loyal to China, maintaining positive relations irrespective of Beijing's politics. Despite Belgrade’s EU membership aspirations and Budapest's membership status, the construction of a railway connecting their capitals, a segment of the Belt and Road Initiative, casts a shadow on the Serbo-Hungarian-Chinese relationship due to its reflection on China's efficacy," he notes.

Dr Brona mentions that the discussions at the Elysee Palace will likely be challenging for Xi Jinping, as France has pushed for a European embargo on Chinese imports, particularly in the automotive industry, for over a year. "Paris views this as a threat to its national industry. This represents a stark shift in French policy, causing concern in Beijing. Previously, Franco-Chinese relations were largely positive, marked by agreements such as the purchase of Airbus aircraft and agricultural and food products," he listed.

He stresses the importance of robust economic ties, especially trade relations with the world's wealthiest nations, for China. "Xi Jinping is decidedly investing in new production capacities, but the challenging economic climate constrains Chinese companies from offloading excess inventory domestically. Consequently, they must seek out international markets. Should France prompt the entire Union to adopt anti-dumping measures in the automotive or medical sectors, it would severely strain the relationship between the Union and China," Dr Brona forecasts. He adds that the export value from China to Europe dropped by approximately £85 billion in 2023, signifying a substantial loss for the Chinese economy.

The Paris discussions are expected to focus on political matters, emphasising Europe's strategic independence and reduced reliance on the US, alongside the conflict in Ukraine. "President Emmanuel Macron aims to involve China in the forthcoming peace summit in Switzerland in June. However, I remain sceptical as China has explicitly stated its unwillingness to engage in peace talks about Ukraine without Russia's inclusion. Under these conditions, it's hard to envision Russia being invited to the negotiations," Dr. Brona underscores. He anticipates that the talks might also explore enhancing Franco-Chinese cooperation, potentially including Germany, and proposals for initiating dialogue between China and the EU.