Ukraine's surprise offensive in Kursk exposes Russian miscalculations

The Ukrainian military managed to surprise Russia with its offensive in the Kursk region, even though the Russians were aware of the plans and had been preparing for the Ukrainian operation for several months, reports the American Institute for the Study of War (ISW).

"According to reports, Russian authorities have known for months about the threat of a future Ukrainian offensive in the Kursk region, but took no adequate measures to eliminate such a threat," evaluates the American think tank in its analysis on Saturday.

"The Guardian" reports, citing Russian government and military documents seized by Ukrainian forces in the Kursk region, that Russian troops stationed in the region repeatedly warned the command about the possibility of a Ukrainian offensive at the end of 2023.

Documents indicate that the local military command issued orders for additional soldier training, construction of new fortifications, preparation of trenches, and military equipment as part of preparations for the upcoming Ukrainian operation.

One of the documents indicated that as of June 2024, Russian military units stationed along the border had only 60-70% of the anticipated personnel, mainly poorly trained reservists.

"It appears that Russian authorities made no significant efforts to increase the readiness of military units in the Kursk region or to build additional fortifications along the border. These requests were ignored due to erroneous calculations regarding Ukraine's ability to penetrate deep into the Kursk region" writes ISW.

Analysts from the Institute for the Study of War emphasize that the documents confirm that Ukrainian forces surprised the Russians during the invasion of the Kursk region. "Although Russian forces were likely aware of various points along the border where Ukraine could initiate an offensive, Ukrainian forces exploited Russian uncertainty and achieved operational surprise," the think tank points out.

"The Ukrainian operation in the Kursk region demonstrates that surprise is still possible even on a partially transparent battlefield, where the enemy can observe the concentration of forces but is not able to reliably identify the opponent's operational intentions and capabilities," summarise the experts.