Ukraine-Russia: Talks resume over energy ceasefire deal
Ukraine and Russia are engaged in negotiations about halting attacks on energy infrastructure, reports the Financial Times. According to sources, Kyiv seeks to resume talks that were close to an agreement in August, facilitated by Qatar, but were interrupted after the attack on Kursk.
- There’s very early talks about potentially restarting something. There’s now talks on the energy facilities – informed a diplomat involved in the talks.
"An outcome of intelligence agreements"
The agreement could represent the most significant step towards de-escalation since the conflict began. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky suggested this agreement could indicate Russia's readiness for broader peace talks.
In recent weeks, both sides have reduced the frequency of attacks on energy infrastructure – Ukrainian officials believe this is a result of agreements between intelligence services.
Agreement broken due to the Kursk attack
The upcoming winter poses a challenge for Ukraine following numerous Russian missile attacks that have destroyed nearly half of the country’s energy infrastructure. Ukraine relies mostly on nuclear power plants and energy imports from Europe. Kyiv and Moscow had previously agreed that mutually halting attacks was in their interest.
However, according to a former Kremlin official, Putin is unlikely to agree to a deal until Russian troops expel Ukrainian soldiers from the Kursk region, where Ukraine controls 370 square miles.
- As long as the [Ukrainians] are trampling the land in Kursk, Putin will hit Zelenskyy’s energy infrastructure – claims a source.
Despite this, Ukraine plans to continue attacks on refineries and other targets to exert pressure on Russia. According to a Ukrainian official, Kyiv has limited pressure means besides long-range attacks.
The invasion of Kursk led to the collapse of the August talks, which were to be held in Qatar, mediating since June after Zelensky's peace summit in Switzerland, where Russia was not invited. Dmitry Peskov, Putin's spokesperson, declined to comment, as did Zelensky's office.
Informal agreement between Russia and Ukraine
According to the Financial Times sources, Kyiv and Moscow agreed not to attack energy infrastructure last year. Due to this unofficial agreement, Russia refrained from major attacks in the winter of 2022–23. However, Ukraine resumed attacks on Russian refineries at the beginning of 2023 following an unsuccessful counteroffensive, which Moscow considered a breach of the agreement.
Despite US warnings, Kyiv continued the attacks. In retaliation, Moscow intensified attacks on Ukrainian power plants, destroying, among others, the Trypilska power station 25 miles from Kyiv.
Since the beginning of 2024, Ukraine has struck at least nine out of the 32 main Russian refineries. Sergey Vakulenko from the Carnegie Russia Eurasia Center reported that at the peak of the attacks, 17% of Russia’s refining capacity was damaged; however, most damage was repaired.
Putin ready for "compromises" with Ukraine
Ukraine faces an energy crisis as missing capacities pose a threat before winter. Putin suggested that Russia is open to peace negotiations "based on the realities on the ground." However, he demanded full control over four frontline regions and lifting Western sanctions, which Ukraine rejected.
Putin added that Turkey, which mediated the negotiations in 2022, recently offered new peace proposals that Ukraine rejected. "Clearly they're not ready yet. The ball's in their court," the Russian President commented.
