Russia's new missile claim: A bluff or real threat?
In Russia, there has been an outburst of joy since Vladimir Putin announced in his address that the latest and previously unknown Russian ballistic missile, Oreshnik, was used in the attack on Dnipro. Propagandists are competing with predictions of how "Kyiv will burn in the next strike." However, some Western analysts consider the new Russian weapon to be a bluff.
Analysts from the Defence Express portal stated that by using the designation "Oreshnik," the Kremlin was clearly aiming to psychologically impact Western countries by creating the impression that the Russian Federation possessed new, unknown missile capabilities, which, in turn, were intended to intimidate the civilized world.
They note that until now, the project named Oreshnik was not publicly mentioned. However, in their opinion, Russians like to invent several different names for the same "miraculous weapon." It could have been another name for the missile known as RS-26 "Rubezh." In 2018, the Kremlin abandoned work on this weapon but still has a few samples.
- Before achieving readiness, ballistic missiles must be tested repeatedly. Powers notify each other about test launches so that missile tests are not interpreted as the start of a nuclear conflict. Russia could not have tested this secretly. It would be improbable if they were to attack Ukraine with a missile that was not tested. It would involve the risk of the missile falling on their own territory, exploding during launch, etc. Even in Russia that's impossible - comments Polish reserve Lt. Col. Maciej Korowaj, a military analyst, for Wirtualna Polska.
Putin's bluff. Russia could not have secretly developed an entirely new missile
- My theory is this: Russia managed to assemble a few Rubezh missiles or bought something from North Korea or Iran. North Korea, in particular, has recently been testing its own ballistic missiles. These countries will not significantly deplete their arsenals for Russia's benefit - evaluates Lt. Col. Korowaj.
- Putin's address is his nuclear cry of despair. Russia is running out of threatening options because the US and NATO countries, after nuclear exercises organised in October, are at the highest level of readiness for such threats - emphasises the interlocutor.
Lieutenant Colonel Korowaj points out that Putin's statement did not have a chilling effect in the West. - There is no concern in the reactions of politicians. Why? Their advisers noted the same circumstances. They went to their superiors, saying: The Kremlin had eight Rubezh missiles, a few of which they assembled. They are not capable of bombarding Ukraine with them; this is an act of desperation - summarises the analyst.
Ukraine responds. Huge fire in a Russian city
It seems that Ukrainian commanders were also not alarmed by the Kremlin's threats. On the same evening as the attack on the city of Dnipro, Ukraine hit ammunition factories in Krasnodar with missiles. The Russian city is within range of ATACMS missiles and Storm Shadow missiles. The action caused powerful explosions and a fire.
Lt. Col. Korowaj expects the exchange of blows to continue. Ukraine's goal will be to destroy the capabilities of supplying the Russian army with ammunition and fuel. Russia will likely respond with attacks on Ukraine's energy infrastructure.
Great joy in Russia. Waiting for these words from Putin
Meanwhile, in Russia, reports of the new Oresznik missile have caused an explosion of joy. Propagandists are competing with visions of how they are bringing Ukraine to its knees. "One strike from the Oresznik with a nuclear charge is enough to completely destroy Kyiv. Even five out of six blocks are enough, and the sixth can still destroy a populated area in the suburbs" - was stated in a discussion by TV experts.
"War Chronicle" - a pro-Russian channel on Telegram describes that "all continental European countries, from Poland and the Baltic states to Portugal and the United Kingdom, are within Oresznik's range. In addition, new NATO members: Finland and Sweden, are within the affected area."
Tens of memes about Putin's new missile have been created. One of the most popular ones (published by the Voblia channel) refers to the Iron Man movie. Vladimir Putin is likened to the main character of the movie, Tony Stark, who showcases the effectiveness of his new weapon, and the blast of the explosion blows hats off the generals' heads.
