Putin warns of global conflict as Ukraine tensions rise
In an address, Vladimir Putin announced retaliation for Ukraine's use of weapons received from Western partners. Conversely, Gen. Valerii Zaluzhnyi, the former commander-in-chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, claims that World War III has begun. However, according to analysts and experts, this does not imply that Russia will resort to nuclear weapons.
- A regional conflict in Ukraine previously provoked by the west has acquired elements of a global character, - stated Putin on Thursday evening. He added that long-range weapons cannot be used on the Russian Federation's territory without specialists' help.
He was alluding to the role of the USA in the operation conducted by Ukraine, during which ATACMS missiles were used to strike deep into Russia. Putin declared that the United States "is pushing the world towards a global conflict." He assured that Russia attacked Dnipro with a new medium-range ballistic missile Oreshnik as a response to Western aggression.
According to the Institute for the Study of War (ISW), Putin has clearly threatened that Russia might attack Western countries supporting Ukraine's deep strikes against Russia and rhetorically linked the missile strike on 21 November with Russia's nuclear potential. This "marked intensification of an existing Russian information operation that aims to use explicit threats and nuclear sabre-rattling to discourage continued Western military support for Ukraine," claim analysts at ISW.
In their view, Putin's statement from 21 November shows that Moscow's constant sabre-rattling remains largely rhetorical. "Putin's recent threats against the West have centred against Western states allowing Ukraine to conduct long-range strikes into "Russian territory," but Ukrainian forces have been striking what the Kremlin illegally defines as "Russian territory" for a long time," assesses the Institute for the Study of War. As it concludes, neither the missile attack on Dnipro nor Putin's statement from 21 November signifies a significant change in Russia's attack capabilities or the likelihood of using nuclear weapons.
"A clear signal for Russia"
According to Dr. Maciej Milczanowski, a Polish expert on security and international politics from the University of Rzeszów, Putin's threats always appear similar. - The Russian dictator first threatens with his most powerful assets and then uses what he can realistically apply. And what Moscow's allies within the informal group known as BRICS will accept. The Kremlin will use a formula of weapon use on the front that will be acceptable to China or India. These countries will almost certainly not accept the use of nuclear weapons, as it would be a long-term threat to them - says Milczanowski in an interview with WP.
He notes that it is characteristic that in response to Putin's revised nuclear doctrine, Beijing issued a statement calling for moderation, reason, and restraint.
- It was a clear signal for Russia that China will not accept the use of nuclear weapons. Moscow cannot afford to "lose" an ally like Beijing - believes the security expert.
According to the interviewee from Wirtualna Polska, Putin's address was directed not only at his citizens, the USA, and Western countries but also at Ukraine.
- He threatened that if Kyiv continues to use American support, it would pay for it with blood. The Russian dictator emphasised that the Americans are pursuing their interests in Ukraine in exchange for already spilled Ukrainian blood. He wants to use such rhetoric to find fertile ground among Ukrainian citizens, connected by family ties with Russia or those sympathetic to Putin. In the informational chaos prevailing during the war, such slogans will be used by propagandists in Central and Eastern European countries - assesses Dr. Maciej Milczanowski.
In his assessment, General Valerii Zaluzhnyi's words about the "ongoing World War III" referred to the escalation on the front and the involvement of North Korean soldiers on the Russian side.
- On the other hand, Putin internationalises this conflict, constantly threatening with nuclear weapons. He refers, for example, to Poland and communicates that the base in Redzikowo is on the list of potential Kremlin attack targets - recalls Dr. Maciej Milczanowski.
Valerii Zaluzhnyi, who is currently an ambassador to the United Kingdom, believes that it is no longer just a war between Ukraine and Russia. He pointed out that North Korea joined the fighting in the Kursk region, China supplies Russia with technology used in missiles, and Iran sells Shahed drones to Putin. "I believe that in 2024 we can absolutely believe that the Third World War has begun," the general claims.
