Ukraine gains edge with ATACMS, threatening Russian airfields
Near the end of its tenure, the Joe Biden administration enabled Ukraine to target locations within Russia using MGM-140 ATACMS ballistic missiles. These will present a significant challenge for Russian aviation. We explain why and outline their capabilities.
Permitting Ukraine to deploy long-range weapons may bring about a breakthrough in the coming weeks, one that Ukrainians have anticipated for months. The Russians are advancing with a straightforward tactic that succeeds mainly due to military aviation.
This tactic dispatches operational assault groups to a specific area, necessitating Ukrainian defensive actions. Subsequently, identified fortifications or positions are hit by artillery shells or much more effective guided aerial bombs weighing hundreds of kilograms. Later, the area is repeatedly targeted in what are described as "meat assaults".
In this way, Ukrainians lost Avdiivka, effectively being bombed out. Consequently, building fortifications is essentially futile without adequate air defence. In an attempt to manage, Ukrainians began attacking Russian airfields with drones, which were able to damage aircraft, but those operable always managed to relocate to another airfield.
MGM-140 ATACMS — a scourge for Russian aviation
Russian aviation's high survivability was largely due to drones moving at speeds of around 100 km/h, allowing the targeted airfield considerable time to respond. This is not true of the MGM-140 ATACMS ballistic missiles, which can cover 300 km in just a few minutes (their speed is over Mach 3, or approximately 3,700 km/h). This, combined with the lack of reinforced concrete shelters at Russian airfields, could prove disastrous if they are hit by several M39A1 missiles with cluster warheads.
The airfields from which the Russians operate closest to the front are Morozovsk near Rostov-on-Don, Saky in Crimea, and Marinovka in the Volgograd region. The first two are under 300 km from the front line, and the Marinovka air base is less than 400 km from Sievierodonetsk. The range might be slightly short for the last one (though the Storm Shadow cruise missiles would reach it), but the first two airfields are already within the reach of MGM-140 ATACMS ballistic missiles.
The S-300 or S-400 Triumph anti-missile systems won't aid the Russians here, as they must first be diverted from another front section. Moreover, American weapons have hit these anti-aircraft system batteries numerous times.
If the Ukrainians decide to strike Russian airfields, they will likely use MGM-140 ATACMS missiles in the M39A1 version. These missiles have a range of 300 km and a cluster warhead. They contain 300 M74 APAM bomblets, which are 0.6 kg spheres with a diameter of 6 cm.
They are composed of tungsten and filled with explosive and incendiary material. They detonate upon impact due to a simple impact fuse, and the effective destruction range is a few metres. Anything within the impact zone is shredded by tungsten fragments that can penetrate even bulletproof vests, and the incendiary lining can cause, for example, the ignition of fuel leaked from damaged aircraft.
A combination of satellite and inertial navigation guarantees accurate guidance of the missile over the target, where the bomblet payload is released. It's worth noting that the Russians can jam GPS, but missing a few metres for a weapon with a damage range measured in hundreds of metres makes little difference.
Hitting a prime target with several such missiles can cripple Russian capacities to attack targets in Ukraine using bombs from the FAB family with UMPK modules. Alternatively, the mere threat of using ATACMS could necessitate repositioning aircraft to airfields deeper within Russia, diminishing the frequency of attacks and causing logistical challenges.
