Russia's strategic build-up near Ukraine: An ominous move for Kharkiv

The Institute for the Study of War (ISW) is raising concerns about potential aggressive moves by the Russian military. Reports suggest that Russia has positioned as many as 50,000 troops near the Ukraine border, a move that might signal intentions to attack and take control of Kharkiv, a significant eastern city and Vladimir Putin's new objective.

The Russian "North" Group of Forces, concentrated in areas adjacent to Ukraine, primarily consists of units from the Leningrad Military District, which separated from the Western Military District in February, according to Interia.

It is reported that within this formation, up to 31,000 soldiers are in the Belgorod region, about 11,000 in the Kursk region, and over 8,000 in the Bryansk region. The ISW notes that there could be around 395 tanks, more than 900 armoured combat vehicles, and a thousand pieces of artillery in these areas.

The question arises: Why does Russia concentrate such formidable forces in one location? According to sources, Vladimir Putin himself has reportedly set a direct aim.

Citing an American analysis centre, Interia reports a statement from Russian General Mikhail Teplinsky, suggesting that an airborne forces battalion, previously engaged in the Zaporizhzhia region's combat, has been relocated to the Kursk reserve.

Senior Russian security officials consider the taking of Kharkiv a viable military target, contrasting with the feasibility of further incursions into Ukraine, as disclosed on March 26 by the independent Russian outlet Meduza.

According to the source, the Kremlin might be planning an offensive on Kharkiv, potentially followed by another wave of mobilization. If the Russians were to take the city, they could likely proclaim a triumph in the Ukraine invasion and might start drawing down the conflict. It is said that the military is being directed to mobilize up to 300,000 troops.

The ISW suggests that the capture of Kharkiv appears improbable as the Russians lack the necessary military capability, Interia reports. The city is well-defended, with substantial Ukrainian forces deployed in its surroundings. Additionally, it holds immense significance for Kyiv's economy.

Before the conflict, Kharkiv had a population of around 1.5 million, making it Ukraine's second-largest city. It has been under frequent attack, with Russian offensives also targeting the energy infrastructure and leaving residents without electricity. Putin dreams of capturing and annexing this major city into Russia, reminiscent of USSR times.