Russia's push for veteran contracts raises security concerns
"It's about preserving the combat genes in the army; they have enormous experience," say experts commenting on reports from Russia about soldiers being pressured to extend their contracts. This implies that even if peace is achieved, the Russian invading army could continue to pose a threat. Ukraine has a counter-response: "If we are not accepted into NATO, we will need an army of 1.5 million soldiers."
Commanders are urging soldiers to sign contracts that may be indefinite, warned the independent Russian portal "Wiorstka". "We want as few people as possible returning home. Mobilised soldiers are being compelled to sign agreements while awaiting peace talks," reports the Russian portal.
Those refusing to sign a contract risk being assigned to units assaulting Ukrainian positions, where there is a 15% survival rate. The authors suggest that, should the war in Ukraine conclude, the Kremlin could announce demobilisation (ongoing since September 2022). However, in practice, thousands of soldiers will remain in the army under contracts.
- Russia places significant importance on retaining experienced soldiers from the war in Ukraine within its army ranks, as this is critical for maintaining combat effectiveness. The Kremlin also realises that they could become a societal issue post-war, believes retired Col. Maciej Korowaj, a military analyst at the University of Białystok and the Academy of Warfare Art.
Could they become Europe's dread? Russian army veterans
- It's about preserving the combat genes in the army. The contracts focus on soldiers with a year of frontline battles; they possess enormous experience. If such veterans left, the army would lose newly acquired capabilities, adds the analyst.
According to retired Lt. Col. Korowaj, after the war in Ukraine ends, Russia will face the issue of veterans who have grown accustomed to the high wages associated with battle roles. A decrease in earnings post-conflict could lead to dissatisfaction and social unrest.
- Contract soldiers recruited into the Russian army for the war in Ukraine receive between 360,000 and 400,000 rubles monthly, or approximately £3,100-£3,400. These sums are normally out of reach for the average Russian, he adds.
Ukraine's response: 1.5 million troops, 150 aircraft
Let us recall that since 12th February, Donald Trump has initiated the first concrete steps aimed at ending the three-year conflict between Russia and Ukraine. The American leader has held talks with Presidents Putin and Zelensky. The Munich Security Conference is ongoing, focusing on the situation in Ukraine. So far, neither side has mentioned demobilising their forces, quite the contrary.
- If we are not admitted into NATO, we will require an army of 1.5 million soldiers, said Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky in the corridors of the Munich conference. He added that such a number of soldiers would increase military brigades from 110 to 220. According to the politician, Ukraine needs 150 F-16 aircraft and 25 Patriot systems for defence. This would reduce reliance on a foreign contingent to separate fighting Ukrainians and Russians.
Recent warnings from analysts indicate that Russia is building a universal army expected to comprise 1.5 million soldiers. Based on battlefield experiences in Ukraine, regiments specialising in drone warfare are being established.
President Zelensky noted the threat to other neighbours of Russia: " We have intelligence suggesting they will increase their army by 2025 with 12-15 divisions, estimated to be an additional 150,000 soldiers." The politician believes Russian units will undergo training in Belarus.
- If they conduct exercises there in the summer or autumn of 2025, once prepared, I suspect that they may initiate a full-scale invasion. At that moment, my question is: who said they would restart it against Ukraine? They could commence in Poland, in Lithuania, warned Zelensky.
Tomasz Molga, journalist at Wirtualna Polska
