Russia's new thermobaric weapon tactic intensifies Ukrainian conflict

Russians have changed their artillery tactics on the front. They have stopped shelling broad front sections with a barrage of fire. Now, they strike precisely, destroying Ukrainian fortifications in narrow sections. Small groups of soldiers then move into this scorched earth, tasked with eliminating any surviving defenders.

The TOS-1 and recently introduced TOS-2 systems are vital in the new tactic. The first has been used since the early 1980s, debuting in Afghanistan. The currently used, modified system in the TOS-1A Solonpepiok variant is a self-propelled 24-tube launcher of 220mm thermobaric rocket missiles. The launcher is mounted on a BM-1 vehicle, built on an adapted T-72 or T-90 tank chassis.

Firing a full salvo takes up to 12 seconds, and the unguided missiles have a range of about 6-9 kilometres. When they hit the ground, hell breaks loose. The missiles are intended to destroy fortifications, so hiding in a combat shelter doesn't help.

The deadly force is not just the shockwave that breaks bones and crushes internal organs but also the extremely high temperature that scorches the respiratory tracts and melts the skin. The weapon can cause something worse than immediate death. It can cause minimal brain tissue damage and severe inner ear, lung, and other organ damage. As a result, the victim slowly dies over several minutes after the explosion.

Due to this and the use of chemical gases, the Russians managed to breach Ukrainian lines near Avdiivka, and now they are successfully employing this tactic on other front sections.

Brent Eastwood, a former US Army officer publishing columns on the 19FortyFive website, wrote about the TOS-1: "It might even be Russia‘s most powerful weapon that doesn’t use nuclear technology: Who on earth would want to shoot rockets that create deadly, suffocating fires".

On the front, a younger sibling of the tracked TOS-1A appeared. This is the wheeled TOS-2, intended to be a lighter, more mobile solution. In 2016, work began integrating it with the wheeled chassis of the Ural-63706 truck. Serial versions received three rows of launch containers, each holding eight rockets.

Four years after the prototype was produced, serial production began, and the TOS-2 made its combat debut at the end of May 2022, when the Russians were defending the Donets line. In recent months, TOS-2 has appeared near Lyman and during the battle of Vuhledar.

However, the vehicle could not be photographed during two years of the war. It was finally tracked in February 2024, when the destruction of one of these vehicles was recorded in Donbas. The Russians finally boasted about using TOS-2 on the front near Vuhledar, where they are still trying to break through Ukrainian defences.

Defence Express reported that the Russian Omsktransmash factory has completed work on the latest thermobaric artillery system TOS-3 variant, "Drakon." The new version is to combine the most essential features of both predecessors.

The advantage of TOS-1A is increased crew safety, which proved crucial in the widespread use of loitering munitions and anti-tank mines. The biggest drawback was the short range and low accuracy of the missiles.

Therefore, the Russians decided to install launchers from TOS-2 on the adapted tank chassis BM-1. These launchers are designed to launch guided missiles with a range of up to 24 kilometres, which is expected to significantly improve the system’s front-line survivability.

This would be very important for the Russians, as the Ukrainians reportedly destroyed about 15 out of 50 TOS-1A vehicles that the Russians sent to Ukraine (several abandoned vehicles were captured and used by Ukrainians against their original owners). TOS-3 remains a prototype, but the Kremlin may decide to produce them.

For now, the Russians plan to resume production of TOS-1A and increase missile production by 250%. Sergei Shoigu announced this before he ceased being the defence minister. As front-line experience has shown, TOS-1A is a beneficial weapon against Ukrainian fortifications. It has repeatedly helped the Russians break the front where they had been stuck for a long time.