Ukrainian conflict intensifies: Zelensky's ramping friction with General Zaluzhny raises dismissal fears

Appointing Zaluzhny as the head of the Ukrainian army was among Zelensky's initial decisions. His rationale was simple: the President sought a general who wasn't simply young but had been fully trained in independent Ukraine. Most importantly, he was far removed from political entanglements.

In military terms, Zaluzhny's appointment was excellent. The General bolstered ties with NATO and devised defence plans. However, to the surprise of the presidential administration, he demonstrated exceptional political capabilities.

The initial friction arose following a triumphant battle for Kyiv. The Security Service of Ukraine commenced investigations into the loss of Kherson, Melitopol, and Berdiansk. Major General Dmitry Marchenko, in charge of defending the right bank of the Dnieper and protecting Odessa, was among those implicated. His manoeuvre near Nikolaev stalled the Russian offensive and impressed experts. Regrettably, it did not make a comparable impression on politicians. Although Zaluzhny defended Marchenko, resentment persisted.

However, he was unable to avoid the dismissal of Lieutenant General Tatyana Ostaschenko, the head of medical troops of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, in November 2023. This was seen as a political move by new Defence Minister Rustem Umerov, since there were no justifiable reasons. It was Ostaschenko who initiated training programmes for civilians, significantly expanded the field medical service, and built a rehabilitation base for injured soldiers.

Zelensky and Umerov - behind Zaluzhny's back - attempted to dismiss army group commanders Major Generals Oleksandr Tarnavskiy and Sergei Nayev, who were fighting in Donbass and Zaporizhia. Colonel General Oleksandr Syrski, head of the Land Forces and supposedly an ally of the President, was allegedly involved in this too.

It was during this time that the conflict reached its peak. In December, 'Ukrainian Truth' reported that Umerov and Zelensky were trying to bypass the General Staff, issuing direct orders to frontline commanders. They intended to use General Syrski to achieve this. Diplomats based in Kyiv confirmed these press reports.

The generals divided into two factions: one supporting Zelensky and Syrski and one supporting Zaluzhny, who began to openly criticise civilian authorities. He warned that if the country didn't completely shift to wartime mode, the military would be compelled to adopt a defensive stance and the front would stagnate in the trenches. His predictions were realised less than a month later.

After additional critical statements, Deputy Mariana Bezuhla began to campaign for General Zaluzhny's removal. She is regarded as the presidential party's pitbull, testing diverse ideas originating from the presidential camp.

In May 2022, Bezuhla proposed a controversial draft law in the Supreme Council that would allow commanders to freely use weapons against individuals refusing to obey orders, "without causing the death of a soldier". This suggestion was met with extensive criticism.

Following this proposal, a survey was published by the Kyiv International Institute of Sociology. A remarkable 92% of respondents stated they trust Zaluzhny, while 72% opposed his removal as commander-in-chief. Talk of his dismissal subsided.

Zelensky, being a television personality, places great importance on viewer ratings. He has repeatedly proven that public opinion polls are more important to him than logic and national welfare. This was apparent when he lowered the draft age and summoned an additional 500,000 soldiers, despite signs of strain on the front lines. Nonetheless, his concern for his public image outweighed these considerations.

Consequently, it is surprising that rumours of Zaluzhny being let go have surfaced again so quickly. This time, the leaks emerged in government-supported media and on social media accounts linked to Marinsky Palace, the location of the President's office. This was likely a preliminary step before the publication of Zaluzhny's article on CNN's website.

Prior announcements of Zaluzhny's removal followed the publication of an article he penned for 'The Economist'. In this piece, he remarked that military objectives were not being met, in part due to the government's struggles to adequately supply the army and its refusal to mobilize.

In his most recent article for CNN, he drew attention to Russia's virtually limitless mobilization capabilities, their ability to dodge sanctions, and the dwindling ammunition supplies of Ukraine, which heavily rely on allied contributions.

"Stocks of missiles, air defence interceptors, and artillery ammunition from our partners are running out due to the intensity of military operations in Ukraine, as well as a global shortage of propellants," Zaluzhny wrote.

He also criticized Zelensky's administration for its unwillingness to declare mobilization and sidestepping "unpopular decisions". In addition, he reiterated concerns about the weakness of the Ukrainian defence industry, which is governed by politicians from the ruling party.

It is probable that politicians were aware of Zaluzhny's comments prior to their publication, which could explain why rumours about his removal were circulating. This serves as a signal from Zelensky's team that they will not tolerate such behaviour.

Perhaps this will amount to just another tempest in a teapot. Public opinion rallied behind Zaluzhny once again. The Ministry of Defence quickly denied the dismissal reports, as did the President's spokesperson, Serhij Nykyforov. There may well be more reasons to keep Zaluzhny on board than simply public support polls.

In the corridors of power in Kyiv, it was already being whispered back in November of the previous year about seeking a replacement for the commander-in-chief. Syrski was seen as the general closest to the President. However, it was suggested he didn't want to take over from the popular Zaluzhny.

At the end of January, Bezuhla mentioned that both Lieutenant General Kyrylo Budanov, the head of military intelligence, and Zaluzhny's deputy Lieutenant General Yevhen Moysiuk, were being considered. They both turned down the proposal.

In the meantime, according to reports from the American newspaper 'The Washington Post', the Ukrainian authorities had informed the White House of their intention to remove General Zaluzhny. It appears that Washington did not try to influence Zelensky's decision.

No one in Ukraine wants to take responsibility for the difficult months of war ahead, mostly due to political errors and neglect. It seems that the leaders in Kyiv have forgotten that almost two years ago, the Russians were at their capital's doorstep. Currently, the war is being regarded in the same way the conflict in Donbass has been viewed for years: as an everyday occurrence. The military sees this. Regrettably, their pleadings can only reach the ears of politicians.