Russia's fading naval strength: Su‑33s unveil dire reality

Joint missions of Su-33, MiG-31, and strategic bombers Tu-95MS are portrayed by pro-Moscow media as demonstrations of prowess. However, flights over the Norwegian or Barents Seas, intercepted by NATO aircraft, indicate the contrary - Russia is misusing its carrier-based aviation.

This suggests that Russian decision-makers may no longer harbour illusions about the future of Russia's sole aircraft carrier. Even if the Admiral Kuznetsov ever leaves the repair shipyard, it will lack a competent air group because Russia's carrier-based aviation has effectively ceased to exist.

The Su-33 aircraft is based on the Su-27 fighter, developed under the designation Su-27K. Compared to the original, it has modified engines and landing gear, a canard aerodynamic layout (with canards – additional control surfaces at the front of the fuselage), as well as enlarged and foldable wings.

These modifications were intended to adapt the aircraft to the role of a carrier-based machine, facilitating take-offs and landings on an aircraft carrier.

The development of the Su-33/Su-27K in the 1980s was part of a larger, very ambitious programme that anticipated the expansion of the Soviet navy, transforming it from a force operating near its own shores into an ocean-going fleet capable of challenging the United States Navy.

To this end, the USSR developed an entire family of carrier-based aircraft. Aside from the Su-33, there was the MiG-29K, the two-seat training Su-25UTG, and the early warning aircraft Yak-44. There was also work on a new vertical take-off and landing aircraft – after experiences with the unsuccessful Yak-38, its improved successor Yak-141 was being developed.

At the same time, the construction of Project 1143.5 aircraft carriers – vessels Admiral Kuznetsov and Varyag – was funded. Alongside these, the design and, in 1988, construction of the first aircraft carrier of Project 1143.7 began.

Ulyanovsk was to feature nuclear propulsion and was only marginally smaller than the American Nimitz-class aircraft carriers, representing, along with them, the CATOBAR aircraft carrier class boasting the greatest capabilities. Simultaneously with the construction of Ulyanovsk, preparations began for laying the keel for the next ship of this type.

For the planned development of carrier-based aviation, the Russians also built the unique, flight trainer Nitka, in Crimea. At the Saki airbase, a large installation in the form of a segment of an aircraft carrier deck embedded in a ground runway was constructed. The deck was mounted on actuators that could move it, thereby simulating the rocking of a ship's deck.

All these grand plans collapsed along with the fall of the USSR. Of the planned aircraft carriers, Russia completed only the Admiral Kuznetsov. The incomplete Varyag was sold to China (where it was completed as the aircraft carrier Liaoning). The construction of the supercarrier Ulyanovsk, which was about 40 per cent finished, was halted, and the vessel was scrapped.

Of the Kremlin's great power plans, only the project of MiG-29K aircraft remained – this type of aircraft attracted interest from India, which formed an air group for the aircraft carriers INS Vikramaditya (created from the purchased Russian aircraft cruiser Admiral Gorshkov) and INS Vikrant.

For years, the pride of the Russian fleet was the sole aircraft carrier Admiral Kuznetsov. Although it appeared impressive, it is worth noting that it is not a successful vessel. Its capabilities, measured by the number of take-offs and landings achievable in a day, are far fewer compared to American aircraft carriers. Worse yet, the aircraft taking off from the Kuznetsov were either under-fuelled or under-armed – the absence of a catapult forced limitations on the mass of the launching planes.

The aircraft carrier itself – which, during deployments, smoked like a 19th-century steamship – concluded a period of limited operation with a mission in the Middle East, after which it was only suitable for repair.

When it finally reached the repair shipyard in 2017, it faced a series of problems – fires broke out on the ship, and the dry dock capable of servicing such a large vessel was destroyed by incompetence. Meanwhile, the Kremlin, treating the matter as one of prestige, regularly assured the public that the Admiral Kuznetsov was returning to service, although the return date was continuously postponed. Initially, it was supposed to happen in 2022.

The interception of Su-33 over the Barents Sea indicates that the current declarations by the Russians, assuring that the Admiral Kuznetsov will soon return to service, are unreliable. This is due to several reasons.

The first is the lack of personnel. During the prolonged refurbishment of the ship, its crew was dispersed, and some sailors – after being transferred to mechanised infantry – were sent to Ukraine.

The second reason is that Russia's only aircraft carrier has been under repair for seven years, and the pilots trained for it have either retired or have nowhere to train. The Nitka trainer, after the Russian attack on Ukraine, is within the range of Ukrainian drones. Its current state is unknown, but – even if it were operational – it hasn't been utilised for training in years.

The third reason is the degradation of Kuznetsov's air group. If the aircraft carrier were to return to service, the pilots would require intensive retraining due to the extended hiatus. As pointed out by the Ukrainian service Defence Express, no such training is occurring.

Russian pilots, instead of refreshing lost skills involving take-offs and landings on an aircraft carrier, are serving as escorts for Tu-95 patrols. In doing so, they are depleting the dwindling resources of the few remaining carrier-based aircraft still in service – out of the 35 (or 48, according to other sources) Su-33s produced, currently, only 17 are serviceable.

This means that the Russian carrier aviation, built over a considerable period with significant resources, has practically ceased to exist. Even if – which seems unlikely – the Admiral Kuznetsov does return to service, it will lack an air group: both aircraft and pilots will be missing.

India and China are building aircraft carriers, and Japan, for the first time since World War II, is returning to vessels of this class (albeit limited to vertical take-off and landing aircraft). South Korea also expresses its intention to build the CVX carrier.

Russia, which for years was one of the few countries with a classic aircraft carrier, is no longer a contender in this arena. The capability to project power, such as deploying an aircraft carrier with an air group to support the precarious regime of Bashar al-Assad in Syria, is now just a memory for the Kremlin.