Russian Air Force at breaking point amid war and aging fleet
The Russian Air Force, although suffering proportionally fewer losses than the ground forces, is in a state of disrepair. The war in Ukraine has accelerated the ongoing degradation of Russian equipment and its capabilities, and the industry is not keeping up with replenishing the losses.
The Russian Air Force was already on a downward trajectory before the attack on Ukraine. Its mainstay consists of old planes, and Russian design bureaus and factories, contrary to propagandistic messages, are not able to provide the military with replacements for aircraft designed back in the Soviet era.
According to Defence 24 expert Maciej Szopa, out of approximately 1,200 Russian planes in service, 550 are already nearing the end of their life cycle. They are so worn out and have spent so many hours in the air that they are approaching the endurance limit of their structure. This includes Su-24, Su-25, Su-27, and MiG-29 and MiG-31 aircraft.
Ukrainian estimates suggest that Russia uses 300 machines of various types daily in its operations. According to Maciej Szopa, considering the operational rate of the fleet, this indicates that Russia has engaged most of its combat aircraft in the fights.
How many combat aircraft does Russia have?
The real number of combat-ready machines is at most 850 units.
Out of these, about 340-360 aircraft produced after 2010 (Su-30, Su-34, Su-35, and Su-57, as well as older strategic bombers) are considered to have the perspective and capability for effective combat use during a hypothetical confrontation between Russia and NATO countries.
At the same time, regardless of damage or being shot down in combat, due to wear and tear, Russia will have to retire about 60 aircraft this year alone.
How many aircraft does Russia produce?
Additionally, at least 12 were destroyed by the Ukrainians in the first half of the year (losses may be higher, but the destruction of 12 aircraft is confirmed by photographic documentation).
Meanwhile, in 2022, the Russian industry produced only 27 new combat aircraft. In 2023, there were 24, and by mid-2024, only six. As a result, the degradation of the Russian Air Force’s capabilities is progressing.
The number of decommissioned and destroyed aircraft significantly exceeds the production capacity of the Russian industry, and the potential of the Russian Air Force is systematically declining.
