Russian sabotage in Europe hints at NATO confrontation risk

Russian intelligence services are enhancing their capabilities in carrying out acts of sabotage in Europe. As described in the report by the Latvian State Security Service (SAB), this forms part of Moscow's long-term preparations for a potential military confrontation with NATO.

In 2024, the number of sabotage acts attributed to Russia increased, involving more European countries. "The new trend confirms that Russia is already in direct confrontation with the West, and it is expanding its capabilities to undertake more intense attacks on a larger scale and on increasingly important targets, such as critical infrastructure," the SAB report emphasised.

"The relative simplicity and low publicity of the sabotage," it was noted, "indicate that Russia's capabilities are currently at an early stage of development." "It is very likely that Russian services are currently testing Europe's reaction and ability to prevent such incidents," the report reads.

Latvian intelligence assesses that in 2025 the likelihood of a Russia-NATO military clash is "rather low" due to the concentration of Russian resources in Ukraine. However, if there is a frozen conflict in Ukraine, Moscow could, within five years, increase its military presence near NATO's northeastern flank, significantly escalating the military threat to the Alliance.

- To maintain security, we must develop our strength. No one tries to attack the strong and confident, - stressed Egils Zviedris, head of the Latvian intelligence agency.

The SAB also revealed incidents of various types of attacks in Latvia, including cyberattacks, which have so far not received much public attention. This includes attacks on national telecommunications operators where attackers disrupted satellite operations by broadcasting a Russian propaganda channel.