US aims to fracture Russia-China ties amid Ukraine tensions
The Trump administration aims to disrupt Russia's alliance with China, which is anticipated as a potential outcome of resolving the war in Ukraine. However, experts doubt the effectiveness of these actions and fear their consequences for Europe.
Members of the U.S. administration, including Special Envoy for Ukraine and Russia Keith Kellogg, have openly discussed strategies to challenge the Russia-China alliance. Speaking at the Munich Security Conference, Kellogg stated that the goal is to pressure Putin into actions he finds uncomfortable. He highlighted ongoing discussions about disrupting Russia’s alliance with North Korea, which had not existed previously, and noted that Russia’s partnership with China has emerged over the past four years.
Experts' scepticism
Secretary of State Marco Rubio, after a meeting with the Russian delegation in Riyadh, stated that ending the war in Ukraine would create "real opportunities" for a "geopolitical partnership with Russia on issues of common interest, as well as economically." However, many experts, including former U.S. Ambassador to Moscow Michael McFaul, express scepticism about drawing Russia to the U.S. side. McFaul highlights that China's relations with Russia are now closer than ever.
Evan Feigenbaum from the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace argues that the idea of breaking the Moscow-Beijing alliance is "historically implausible". "Putin and Xi Jinping share numerous beliefs about how the international order should function and harbour deep ambivalence towards the United States. Therefore, the notion that they can be 'tempted' into doing something they aren't interested in is a foreign policy fantasy," Feigenbaum commented.
The new head of the Pentagon indicates a U.S. withdrawal from its role as the main guarantor of European security, aiming to focus on rivalry with China. Elbridge Colby, nominated for Under Secretary of Defence for Policy, opposes significant aid to Ukraine, arguing that these resources are needed in Asia.
Despite these plans, some traditional Republican "hawks" in the Senate are contemplating opposing Colby's nomination, which would represent an attempt by the former Republican mainstream to reclaim influence in foreign policy.
