Russian encirclement strategy threatens Pokrovsk's fall

On Monday, Russian Defence Minister Andrei Belousov announced that in 2024, Russian troops have captured nearly 4,500 square kilometres of Ukrainian territory. This is relatively little, as the smallest Polish province, Opolskie, is more than twice as large. But on the other hand, no one hides that Russians have been advancing gradually every day, cutting off more and more parts of Ukrainian land.

General Roman Polko notes that Russia is not conducting any spectacular operations.

"They do not show any special mastery in the art of war. Russia has adopted a strategy of long-term ‘grinding’, sending 'cannon fodder' to the front. And if they run out of their own, they buy it from North Korea, which is shocking. What Poland and Ukraine can fear is not bombs or spectacular tank division raids, but the actions of 'little green men' and provocations that occur continuously on our border," says Roman Polko, former commander of the GROM unit and former deputy head of the National Security Bureau.

The situation in Donbas is particularly difficult now. On Saturday afternoon, the Ukrainian portal DeepState published photos of the Russian flag on the city hall building in Kurakhove, a town that had 18,000 inhabitants before the war. "The enemy continues to advance into Kurakhove, gradually taking over the central part of the city," the report said. The photo is a still from a video recorded by Russian military bloggers. It shows Russians removing Ukrainian symbols and capturing several Ukrainian soldiers.

On Monday morning, the Russian state agency RIA Novosti reported that the Kurakhove direction "is probably the 'hottest' in recent months" and that "no more than 20% of the city remains under the control of the Ukrainian Armed Forces."

But not only Russian propagandists report on the progress of Putin's army. The Ukrainian side openly admits that the situation is bad.

"The situation in the direction of Pokrovsk and Kurakhove is difficult. I am grateful to all units that destroy the occupier there. Special thanks also to our soldiers in the Kursk region - they are needed there to achieve the right results for Ukraine, for Ukrainians - in diplomacy," said President Volodymyr Zelensky in a Sunday address.

According to experts interviewed, negotiation goals are important for both sides.

"The Russian side has thrown everything onto the front to improve its position and to use Donald Trump's pressure on Ukraine to sign a ceasefire agreement," says Gen. Roman Polko. However, in his opinion, any ceasefire would be used by Putin to consolidate his hold on the territories already captured and return to his goal of expanding the sphere of influence in a few years.

Meanwhile, according to Gen. Waldemar Skrzypczak, "Only stopping military actions can save Ukraine now".

On Sunday, there were reports that the Ukrainian side refused to talk with Viktor Orban about a holiday ceasefire. Such a stance does not surprise Skrzypczak.

"I am not surprised that they refused to talk with Orban, since he is an ally and patron of Putin. I would rather expect talks with someone more neutral. To me, Orban is a collaborator, so Ukraine had the right to reject his expectations. We should also view it suspiciously; no collaboration with Orban should be allowed," says Gen. Waldemar Skrzypczak, former commander of the Land Forces.

Kurakhove is located about 40 kilometres south of Pokrovsk, a key logistical hub for the Ukrainian army. Pokrovsk, a city with a pre-war population of 60,000, could be the next city on the Russian path. Austrian military expert Markus Reisner from the Theresian Military Academy stated two days ago that if Pokrovsk falls, it could lead to the collapse of all Ukrainian defence in Donbas.

According to Gen. Polko, the potential capture of Pokrovsk by Russians would be significant but not that significant. "It's not the capture of Kyiv or Lviv. Let's look at the entire front. Despite tactical successes by the Kremlin, it is still far from breaking the stalemate in this war of attrition. Even the capture of Pokrovsk will not indicate that any breakthrough is happening," believes Gen. Polko.

Gen. Waldemar Skrzypczak holds a different view. He believes that it is evident that the Russians have the potential to break through the Ukrainian army's defence, and that on multiple fronts at the same time.

"The Ukrainians do not have the reserve potential to prevent a disaster in these areas. Because it will be a disaster. Piercing through the defences in these directions will give the Russians a lot of room to manoeuvre because behind these towns, Ukrainians have no prepared fortifications or troops to stop a new Russian army assault," says Gen. Waldemar Skrzypczak.

Waldemar Skrzypczak emphasises that the Russians have now changed tactics. "They no longer assault cities; instead, they encircle them, cutting off logistics. In this way, the Ukrainian army loses its ability to conduct defence," says Skrzypczak.

A map published by the DeepState portal confirms his words. "The Russians broke through to Zelenovka near Kurakhove and dangerously approached the road leading to the city from Zaporizhzhia," the Ukrainian portal Strana on Telegram analyses. From Zelenovka to the highway leading from Kurakhove to Zaporizhzhia, there are just under 2.5 kilometres left.

"In this direction, the Russians are breaking through the defence, and there is currently no chance for the Ukrainians to stop this Russian army assault," says Skrzypczak.

Roman Polko recalls Gen. Valerii Zaluzhnyi's words that the best solution for Ukraine would be to arm its army with modern technology and equipment.

"If that had happened immediately, this war of attrition would probably not have lasted so long. And now, at the end of the third year of fighting, it is visible that, unfortunately, the West shows its weakness because it blocked support for Ukraine. And Ukraine itself is bleeding," concludes Gen. Roman Polko.