Ukraine's struggle: Mounting losses and looming Russian offensive
Fewer than 80,000 were killed - these are the figures regarding the losses of Ukraine's military presented to the media by the country's president, Volodymyr Zelensky. According to analysts, Ukraine finds itself in a dire situation. A Russian offensive towards Zaporizhzhia is becoming increasingly likely.
- This is not the time to compete over which side has suffered more losses. The Ukrainian army is in a dire situation. It lacks the strength to stop Russia, to secure itself. This is a real tragedy - comments Gen. Waldemar Skrzypczak, former commander of the Land Forces.
- At the beginning of the war, the Russians suffered higher losses than Ukraine. In the current phase, due to Russia's strategic advantage and change in tactics, I think these losses are similar - he assesses.
The interlocutor refers to media reports and statements from Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky. - Recently, the American press reported that 80,000 Ukrainians have died. But I want to tell you, no - it's less, much less - said the Ukrainian leader in an interview with Kyodo News agency. He emphasised that since September, for every fallen Ukrainian, there have been eight Russians.
The Ukrainian politician did not have much good news to share. He announced that thanks to strong defence, the Ukrainian army managed to thwart Russian plans to capture and occupy the cities of Kharkiv and Sumy. - The support given to us was enormous, but still insufficient. (...) In the east, the enemy is advancing. We do not have enough infantry brigades. Fact. We are working with partners to equip new brigades. Our reserves are insufficient," added Zelensky.
The war continues, human losses are colossal
Ukraine and Russia may have lost over a million people killed and wounded over the course of the war. Such data were recently provided by "The Wall Street Journal", citing a confidential assessment of data from the Ukrainian government and Western intelligence. At the same time, Ukraine's losses are estimated at 80,000 killed and 400,000 wounded. According to these estimates, Russia has lost up to 200,000 killed (estimates vary). The number of wounded is comparable to that of Ukrainians – also around 400,000. Sociologists add that Ukraine has lost millions more citizens due to the occupation of its territories and rapid emigration.
Estimates regarding losses are difficult to verify, as the data are treated as a state secret. According to information published by "The New York Times" in August 2024, the number of Ukrainian soldiers killed in action could be around 70,000 and the wounded estimated at 120,000. Pentagon experts cautioned that these figures are estimates and can vary widely depending on the source of analysis.
Why only estimates? Both Ukraine and Russia may present data in a way aligned with their own propaganda narratives, making it difficult to obtain exact numbers.
Controversy over desertion. Was it not a secret?
According to Gen. Waldemar Skrzypczak, it's not just about the numbers but also about the state of the army and the mood accompanying events at the front. - Zelensky mentions the fallen. The casualties could have been avoided if not for the mistakes made during the infamous failed offensive in autumn 2023. Those losses, sending thousands of people to prepared, mined Russian positions, marked the beginning of the army's crisis - indicates Gen. Skrzypczak.
The general commented on the matter of desertion among Ukrainians. According to "Financial Times", from January to October 2024, Ukrainian prosecutors initiated 60,000 cases against soldiers suspected of desertion, nearly double the number in the years 2022 and 2023 combined. - Escapes from training conducted in Poland were already an open secret. I heard reports that families would come for soldiers trained with us and take them to the Netherlands, and the soldiers disappeared – says the military.
- Today, Ukraine lacks volunteers, and consequently, the forces necessary to secure the entire front. Soldiers who fight see that the situation is becoming critical because there is no one to replace them. They have lost hope. This is heading in a bad direction. The Russian army hasn't made such progress for a long time as it has achieved in the last three months when they seized new territories in the eastern part of the country. There is no one to stop them this winter - summarises Gen. Skrzypczak.
Ukrainians sound the alarm. Russia is preparing a new attack
"Between 1st September and 30th November, Russians captured over 1,554 square kilometres in Ukraine and regained about 492 square kilometres in Kursk. The pace of the advance accelerated month by month despite the heavy losses suffered by the Russians," summarises Emil Kastehelmi from the Finnish analyst group Black Bird Group.
He published maps on the X portal indicating that the main target of the Russian offensive this autumn was the Pokrovsk and Kurakhove area. Currently, most changes on the frontline occur on a 145-kilometre stretch.
Ukrainians are increasingly warning of a Russian attack in a new direction - reports the Unian agency. It concerns the Zaporizhzhia region, where Russian troops are accumulating equipment and regrouping units. On 1st December, the commander of the 3rd Brigade of the National Guard of Ukraine, Oleksiy Khylchenko, told journalists that this is a sign of preparations for a large-scale offensive in that region.
- They are preparing for a large-scale offensive in our direction. Are we ready for their offensive? I think we are – said the officer. President Volodymyr Zelensky stated in a Telegram post that Ukrainian forces are already defending in Zaporizhzhia, "achieving good results."
