Putin's nuclear gamble: Is he counting on Trump's return?
Russia threatens with nuclear weapons. Amidst rising tensions and mounting threats, NATO asserts that no restrictions should be imposed on the weapon systems supplied to Ukraine. Should we really be concerned? According to Dr Jamie Shea, a former high-ranking NATO official, President Putin is waiting for Donald Trump to assume power.
Vladimir Putin approved an amendment to the nuclear doctrine, which suggests that a "critical threat" to the sovereignty and territorial integrity of Belarus and Russia may justify the use of nuclear weapons. The document clearly states that "The fundamental principle of the doctrine is that the use of nuclear weapons is a measure of last resort to protect the country's sovereignty." Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov described this as a decisive signal for the West.
Is Putin waiting for Trump?
Has the risk of Russia using nuclear weapons genuinely increased? Dr Jamie Shea, a former high-ranking NATO official, addressed this question.
He said, "It's difficult to determine. With Putin, you never know. He warned the West on the day he invaded Ukraine in February 2022 not to support Ukraine, or they would face severe Russian repercussions. However, that never occurred. Russia has not reacted to the crossing of any of its red lines—tanks, F-16s, long-range artillery, and so on. By approving the new nuclear doctrine, Putin is signalling that he now has 'nuclear authority' to respond to Ukraine or the West, should he choose to do so. He wants us to take Russia seriously," Shea said.
The former NATO official said, "Putin will decide whether circumstances require a nuclear response."
He added, "I don't think he will decide to do that because he's waiting for Trump." He assessed that "brandishing the nuclear option is a good way to scare and intimidate at any cost" to halt American military support for Ukraine.
Regarding the potential Western response to the use of nuclear weapons by Russia, he noted: "It's hard to assess because NATO countries do not disclose publicly how they would respond to such actions. The Kremlin remains in uncertainty, which strengthens deterrence. But behind the scenes, contingency planning is always underway."
In response to Moscow's deployment of North Korean ground troops on the front line, US President Joe Biden's administration has given Ukraine the green light to use American weapons to strike targets deep inside Russia.
NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte mentioned yesterday that each Alliance member state makes that decision independently, however, "when allies deliver weapons systems (to) Ukraine, it is best not to put restrictions on them (these systems)."
