Russia shifts nuclear doctrine to counter ATACMS threat
Russia has announced a new nuclear doctrine, lowering the threshold for the use of nuclear weapons. "This is a reaction to the war in Ukraine and an attempt to intimidate the West," says military analyst Mariusz Cielma in an interview with PAP.
20 November 2024 09:11
Military analyst Mariusz Cielma emphasises in the conversation with PAP that Russia has been employing nuclear threats since the onset of the conflict, and the current actions are a response to Ukraine's permission to use ATACMS missiles.
"Russia has been expressing nuclear threats since the start of the war, and in light of Ukraine being granted permission to use ATACMS missiles deep within (...) the territory (of Russia) it is responding by intensifying these threats," notes the editor-in-chief of "New Military Technology."
The new doctrine stipulates that an attack on Russia by a non-nuclear state supported by a nuclear state will be considered a joint attack. This is an element of intimidating Kyiv's allies. Cielma notes that Russia wants to remind the world of its nuclear arsenal, especially when conventional armed forces no longer evoke fear in the West.
"The signals pointing to the war with Ukraine are evident. The provision (of the doctrine) stating that if Russia is attacked by a non-nuclear state with the support of such a (state) that possesses nuclear weapons, it will be considered a joint attack is directed at Kyiv's allies. It also fits into the Russian narrative from the start of the aggression that it is not so much a war with Ukraine but with NATO. The mention of ballistic missiles by Russian media is intended as a 'warning' against the permission to use ATACMS missiles deep in Russia," says Cielma.
Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov announced that one of the conditions for using nuclear weapons is the launch of ballistic missiles against Russia. The new doctrine also speaks of "credible information about a massive air attack." Cielma adds that Russia signals the threat on three levels.
"The first is a general reminder that Russia has nuclear weapons and the capacity to use them, especially in a situation where the conventional components of Russian armed forces no longer instil such fear in the West. The second is embedding this nuclear threat in the current war with Ukraine, a signal for its allies. The third is the reference to ATACMS missiles," adds Cielma in the conversation with PAP.
Cielma emphasises that Russia's current actions are a signalling operation aimed at causing concern in the West. Experts will analyse every word of the doctrine, but Cielma believes that if Russia decides to use nuclear weapons, the provisions in the doctrine will not be crucial.
Source: PAP
