Russian miscalculation: ATACMS strikes wrong region
The Russians constructed shelters for aircraft in Kursk, fearing ATACMS attacks. Work on them began in October 2024, a few weeks before the official U.S. approval for ATACMS strikes on Russian territory.
However, the Russian Federation's issue was that the army was preparing for ATACMS missile strikes in the wrong location. The Ukrainian service Defense Express notes that the Russians commenced the construction of fortified hangars at an airport near Kursk several weeks before the U.S. approval announcement. In contrast, the Ukrainians targeted a completely different site.
Work at the airport several weeks before U.S. approval
Work on shelters at the Chalino airport began in October 2024. At least five hangars were constructed. In 2022, this airport had no hangars for military aircraft, even though it was a dual-use airport before the war with Ukraine.
Defense Express indicates that the Russian military command anticipated potential ATACMS attacks to be geographically limited and directed mainly against tactical aviation airports. The relevant authorities secured the airbase near Kursk, but the defending army targeted a completely different area. Contrary to Russian expectations, the ATACMS missiles did not strike the Kursk region but the Bryansk region, where no prior fortifications had been prepared.
Delays in shelter construction
However, as reported, the Russians did not treat the threat of ATACMS attacks as fully real. This is evidenced by the delay in constructing shelters despite earlier reports of plans to build them.
As early as July 2024, Russian war correspondents reported on the decision to begin building shelters at tactical aviation airports. Despite this, the process only commenced a few months later, indicating a lack of urgency in their actions.
ATACMS in Ukraine
One of the biggest challenges posed to the enemy by the ATACMS missiles mentioned is their range of up to 300 kilometres and their ability to hit targets accurately. Their capability to cover this distance in just a few minutes, at speeds reaching Mach 3 (over 3,600 kilometres per hour), makes them extremely difficult to intercept.
Moreover, effective defence systems are lacking to stop these fast ballistic missiles, and their impact radius is measured in hundreds of metres. Such technical parameters make ATACMS not only a tactical tool but also a strategic one, capable of influencing the entire war dynamics.
