Pope Francis' health sparks speculation over next successor

The 88-year-old Francis was admitted to Gemelli Hospital in Rome on 14th February after experiencing breathing difficulties over several days. He was diagnosed with bilateral pneumonia. Tests also revealed mild initial kidney failure, which is reportedly "under control."

For several days, the Vatican has reported that the Pope's condition is "critical," although he remains conscious and aware. The threat to Francis' health is not yet over.

Francis, who has been the head of the Catholic Church since March 2013, has suffered from recurring health issues over the past two years. In his youth, he contracted pleurisy and part of one lung was removed, making him particularly susceptible to lung infections.

The condition of Francis and his age have intensified speculation about who could succeed him. Many favourites are mentioned in the media, but only a few have a genuine chance of becoming the 267th successor of St. Peter.

Recently, the media has been focused on Cardinal Fridolin Ambongo Besungu, Archbishop of Kinshasa, the capital of the Democratic Republic of Congo. This 65-year-old cleric was appointed a cardinal by Francis in 2019 and has since established a strong position within the Church.

He is considered the informal leader of the African Church. He gained international attention for his open criticism of the Vatican document "Fiducia supplicans," which, under certain conditions, allowed the blessing of homosexual couples. Besungu wrote that such "blessings cannot be given in Africa without causing a scandal."

His African origin could be a factor in his favour, as the Church is thriving there. Additionally, Besungu is a strong advocate of synods and dialogue within the Church, focuses that Francis has emphasised in recent years.

Against the Archbishop of Kinshasa is his age — he is 65, which is relatively young by cardinal college standards. Cardinals tend to elect older Popes to prevent long pontificates. His election would signal a conservative shift in the Church and, at least partially, a return to the lines of John Paul II. His disadvantage might be that lately, there has been too much noise around him. A well-known Vatican saying goes: 'He who enters the conclave as Pope, leaves as a cardinal.'

Another African candidate mentioned in the speculations is Guinean cleric, Cardinal Robert Sarah, the retired prefect of the Congregation for Divine Worship and the Discipline of the Sacraments. The 79-year-old bishop (turning 80 in June) is considered one of the most well-known conservatives in the Church. His books sell worldwide in large numbers.

In his views, Cardinal Sarah is a staunch opponent of the ordination of women, the blessing of homosexual couples, the abolition of priestly celibacy, or giving communion to those in subsequent unions. In the conclave, his strong views may be an asset, but also a disadvantage — it's unlikely that conservatives could secure broad support for such a distinctive candidate.

The Italians will form a strong faction in the conclave, with 18 clerics from this country among the electors. After a 47-year hiatus, it's quite likely they will want to place one of their own in the Papal office.

Among them, the most notable name is Cardinal Matteo Zuppi of Bologna, head of the Italian episcopate since last year. He was entrusted by Francis with the mission of peace mediation between Ukraine and Russia.

Additionally, Zuppi is a member of the Italian community of Sant'Egidio, which focuses on ecumenism and helping the poor. This group, whose members have lately begun to have significant careers in the Vatican, is influencing more and more matters. Its founder is Italian historian Andrea Riccardi.

Zuppi's election would signify a continuation of Francis' line in a slightly softened form, which would be acceptable to many cardinals in the conclave.

Another Italian candidate mentioned is Cardinal Pietro Parolin, the current Vatican Secretary of State. He is a diplomat and bureaucrat who has earned great trust from Francis. Parolin is calm, more conservative than Francis, and would offer a moderate continuation of his line. His main drawback is his lack of extensive cardinal experience, as he spent most of his life working in various diplomatic roles in the Vatican.

A "middle of the road" candidate among the Italians might be Cardinal Fernando Filoni, the grand master of a knightly order. This leader also spent most of his life in Vatican diplomacy and has extensive experience gathered from various global discussions. If the cardinals wanted a candidate "to wait and see," he seems ideal. At 79, he is non-controversial. However, the downside might be his limited experience in diocesan management and pastoral work.

The topic of a Pope from Asia is appearing more frequently in media speculation. The Church on this continent is growing dynamically, which increases the significance of leaders from this region. In his cardinal appointments, Francis has not overlooked this direction — 21 cardinals from Asia have the right to elect a Pope.

Among them, the most prominent name is Cardinal Luis Antonio Gokim Tagle from the Philippines, Vatican prefect of the Dicastery for Evangelisation. This 68-year-old was already among the favourites at the last conclave. He is known for his pastoral zeal, good rapport with the faithful, and spontaneity. Following Francis' election, he had a brilliant career in the Vatican, becoming the prefect of an important dicastery.

He is well-educated, fluent in several languages, and easily builds rapport. He is considered more of a liberal but tries to maintain balance in his statements. However, his candidacy is overshadowed by the matter of Caritas Internationalis, which he headed in 2015. He did not see through his second term, as he was suddenly dismissed by Francis in 2022. There were significant discussions in the Vatican concerning unclear financial operations within this organisation.

A more moderate candidate from this region is the Metropolitan of Colombo, Cardinal Malcolm Ranjith of Sri Lanka. A polyglot with broad experience as a bishop, he also navigates the Vatican structures and the diplomatic world well.

In the most contentious Church topics, he speaks rather conservatively. He is also a loyal bishop to Francis, sharing a concern for the poorest. He is a candidate whose election wouldn't raise significant controversies.

Another notable figure among Asian hierarchs is Cardinal Charles Maung Bo, Archbishop of Myanmar. A charismatic leader who has guided the local Church through years of persecution. He is considered more traditionally conservative, with views shaped by the environment he operates in. He is one of the most influential Asian hierarchs. His weak side might be his unfamiliarity with Vatican realities, as he spent his entire life in Asia.

South American cardinals could also significantly influence the selection. There are as many as 17 in the college, most of whom were appointed by Pope Francis. Here, Uruguayan Cardinal Daniel Fernando Sturla from Montevideo and Argentine Cardinal Viktor Manuel Fernandez, prefect of the Dicastery for the Doctrine of the Faith, stand out.

Both are relatively young (66 and 63 years old), but they have almost nothing in common. Cardinal Sturla is more of a conservative, under the tutelage of Pope Benedict XVI. He has a clear vision of what the Church should look like and is not a fan of synodality. He emphasises a focus on the poor, but according to him, "the Church cannot just be a charitable organisation."

Cardinal Fernandez is his opposite. He is one of the Pope's closest associates and a radical implementer of Francis' vision. After becoming Pope, he quickly promoted Fernandez, sparking widespread discussion. His statements provoke controversy in conservative circles, sometimes challenging orthodox Church teachings. His election would mean a radical continuation of Francis' line.

A strong group in the conclave traditionally consists of European cardinals, although they have lost significance in recent years. Among them, a few names stand out. The protégé of Francis and his "favourite" is Luxembourgish Cardinal Jean-Claude Hollerich, a Jesuit. He was chosen to lead the synod on synodality. His election would continue Francis' line, and although he doesn't seem to have a great chance, he might play an essential role in shaping potential candidates.

Between the extreme candidates, a cardinal emerges who could reconcile all factions — Hungarian Peter Erdo, Metropolitan of Budapest. Talking about him as a potential Pope is not new. His name was already mentioned before the previous conclave. Erdo is considered a conservative but could be accepted by a majority of the College of Cardinals as a compromise candidate. Fluent in Hungarian, Latin, Italian, French, and English, he is well-known among the cardinals, and his election would represent a commitment to Church stability and tranquillity.

Another name that appears among potential candidates is Swedish Cardinal Anders Arborelius. Raised as a Lutheran, he didn't undergo baptism until the age of 20. He is rather a conservative adherent of strict Church doctrines. When asked if he was ready to become Pope, he quipped: "It's very unrealistic, but possible."

Somewhat more liberal would be French Cardinal Jean-Marc Aveline, Metropolitan of Marseille. Known for his gentleness and excellent connection with the faithful, he seeks compromise in his actions, gaining many supporters. However, he might be "unelectable" due to his relatively young age (66).

If the cardinals were seeking a new Pope who would be a continuation of Francis' line, they might focus on Portuguese Cardinal Jose Tolentino de Mendonca from Madeira, prefect of the Dicastery for Culture and Communication. He's been mentioned among the favourites for some time now. His election would likely mean a long pontificate, as Mendonca is 60 years old.

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