Kremlin crafts 'victory' narrative amid impending war negotiations
The administration of President Putin has started shaping the "image of victory" among officials from Russian regions regarding the war with Ukraine, which they are to present to the citizens, report Kommersant and Vedomosti, citing sources.
"The President's Administration (AP) assumes that the special operation will end someday, and one must be prepared for it," said one of the newspaper's informants. According to sources, future outcomes of the war are to be perceived by Russians as a victory. However, it is already known that it will not satisfy "angry patriots" or "liberals".
Preparations to announce the end of the war
Therefore, the Kremlin suggests relying on the "calm majority" who will be satisfied with the "denazification" and "demilitarisation" of Ukraine announced by the Russian president and the takeover of four Ukrainian regions. According to the president's administration, officials must "maintain and expand" this majority, claim "Kommersant" interlocutors.
The Kremlin has also commissioned regional authorities to cooperate with war participants, including assistance in their employment and rehabilitation. Otherwise, they may join protest movements or the criminal world, as discussed at a seminar in "Senezh".
"Senezh" is a training centre in the Moscow region known as the "Senezh Management Workshop." It is a place where seminars and workshops are held for Russian officials, including deputy governors. These meetings aim to improve management skills and discuss current political and administrative issues. This centre plays a significant role in shaping regional policy and communication strategies in Russia.
Putin set the framework for agreement
One of the risks identified by Putin's administration is that in civilian life, former soldiers "may have difficulty finding the same level of earnings as in the war." Therefore, officials should "work on their support and create respect for them in society," claims a Kommersant source.
Earlier, sources close to the Kremlin informed Reuters that Russian President Vladimir Putin set the framework for an agreement on Ukraine to be discussed with the newly elected U.S. president, Donald Trump. According to this information, Putin might agree to withdraw troops from the Kharkiv and Mykolaiv regions but will insist on maintaining control over the annexed regions. He will also demand that Ukraine renounce its NATO membership.
"To Russians, Putin can present such an agreement as a victory that ensures the protection of Russian-speaking residents of eastern Ukraine and maintains a land bridge to Crimea," noted one of Reuters' interlocutors.
What about the occupied regions of Ukraine?
It is not clear, however, whether Putin will seek full control over the four Ukrainian regions — Luhansk, Donetsk, Zaporizhzhia, and Kherson. None of them are fully controlled by the Russian army, and in June of this year, Putin conditioned the start of peace negotiations on the withdrawal of Ukrainian Armed Forces from these areas.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky regarded Putin's conditions as another ultimatum and refused to discuss them. At the end of November, Zelensky declared that Kyiv would agree to end the "hot phase" of the war with Russia if Ukraine is admitted to NATO. However, he emphasised that there is no question of giving up the occupied territories: after being invited to the North Atlantic Alliance, Kyiv intends to reclaim them "through diplomatic means".
Meanwhile, Trump announced that he is ready to end the war between Russia and Ukraine immediately after his inauguration on 20 January 2025. At the same time, his advisors' proposals regarding the end of the conflict boil down to freezing the current front line and halting talks about Ukraine's NATO membership.
