Is Netanyahu's era ending? Israel's strained alliances and the unyielding Gaza conflict

Polls suggest that if early elections were to occur in Israel, the opposition would likely come to power. The lack of military achievements in the Gaza Strip and internal issues are the tip of the iceberg. Israel is experiencing a significant image crisis and faces growing international criticism.

A significant crisis is also evident in Israel’s relationship with its closest ally, the United States. Is this the end of Benjamin Netanyahu's political career, the longest-serving Prime Minister in Israel?

The conflict in the Gaza Strip has persisted for over six months. The Israeli army has yet to claim a decisive victory. Hamas still commands around 14,000 armed fighters. On Tuesday morning, the Israeli military announced it had taken operational control of the Palestinian side of the Rafah border crossing. Israel considers this the last bastion of Hamas, where its leaders are believed to be hiding, possibly along with remaining hostages.

However, Hamas cells continue to operate in areas supposedly "pacified" by the Israeli military, surviving mainly through an extensive network of tunnels underneath the Gaza Strip. Before the conflict, the tunnel network was estimated to stretch about 350 kilometres. Now, the Israeli military estimates its length to be approximately 700 kilometres. To grasp the extent of this network, it's worth noting that the Gaza Strip covers an area of roughly 365 square kilometres.

The absence of significant military achievements for Israel in the Gaza Strip is only one aspect of the issue. It's crucial to remember that a number of Israeli hostages are still being held by Hamas, which poses a significant political challenge for Prime Minister Netanyahu's administration.

Prime Minister Netanyahu insists that only Rafah stands between Israel and a total victory. He believes most of Hamas's high-ranking military leaders are located there. However, not everyone agrees with Netanyahu's optimism.

Some commentators argue that the offensive on Rafah won't secure a definitive win for Israel, and conflicts over the Gaza Strip will persist. They suggest that in Rafah, as in other areas, a situation could emerge where Hamas might perform a tactical retreat, only to return to the city once the Israeli military withdraws.

The debate over Rafah underscores a military disagreement and a political one. More than a million Palestinian civilians reside in the area — mainly refugees from other parts of the Gaza Strip.

The U.S. administration is concerned that seizing the city could result in a substantial number of civilian casualties and has spent months attempting to dissuade Netanyahu from initiating an offensive there. The disagreement over Rafah epitomizes a deeper issue — the escalating crisis between Israel and the United States.

The administration of President Joe Biden is increasingly disillusioned with Prime Minister Netanyahu's approach, accusing him of undermining peace efforts spearheaded by Washington. The Americans expressed their displeasure with Netanyahu's policies at the end of March by not vetoing a UN Security Council resolution that called for an immediate ceasefire in the Gaza Strip (despite having blocked similar resolutions on numerous occasions in the past months). In mid-April, reports surfaced that the State Department was contemplating sanctions against one of the Israeli army's battalions (for human rights abuses).

A segment of Israeli politicians tries to portray the "dispute with the US" as a disagreement purely with President Biden's current administration. However, this perspective does not accurately reflect the situation. Israeli operations in the Gaza Strip have led to a decline in pro-Israeli sentiment across American society, particularly among younger Americans. While in 2023, as many as 64% of Americans aged between 18 and 34 had a favourable opinion of Israel, by February 2024, only 38% shared this sentiment.

The crisis in US-Israeli relations is part of a more significant image crisis for Israel. Controversial military tactics used in the Gaza Strip and a high number of civilian casualties have drawn international criticism against Israel, with South Africa even initiating proceedings before the International Criminal Court, accusing Israel of committing genocide in the Gaza Strip. The ICC's acceptance of South Africa's petition is viewed in Israel as a significant diplomatic setback.

The lack of military victories in the Gaza Strip, the image crisis, and the discord with America represent just a fraction of the challenges. Israel is grappling with severe internal issues.

Prime Minister Netanyahu is seen as one of the main reasons for the Hamas attack on October 7, which resulted in over 1,100 fatalities. As many as 71% of Israelis support the prime minister's resignation, and surveys indicate that early elections would lead to the opposition gaining power.

Beni Gantz, who is leading in the polls, has proposed the idea of early elections, but Netanyahu has declined. Should the elections occur now, it would likely signify the end of his political life.

Netanyahu hopes to retain his position as Prime Minister until the conclusion of the current Knesset's term in October 2026. He aims to rebuild public trust by then. However, even without agreeing to early elections, there's no guarantee his ruling coalition will not disintegrate.

Significant disputes within the government include objectives in the Gaza Strip and the future of the Palestinian enclave. Some of Netanyahu's extreme right coalition partners have floated the idea of establishing Jewish settlements in the Gaza Strip. Additionally, a dispute has erupted concerning the conscription of Orthodox Jews into the military.

In March, the Supreme Court upheld a ruling that the current law (effectively exempting Orthodox Jews from military service) is discriminatory and must be amended. Furthermore, the court halted public funding of Talmudic schools, where draft-age men studied, until a new conscription law was enacted. Netanyahu seeks a compromise, but his Orthodox coalition partners are demanding to maintain the current exemption from military service. They are calling for the unlocking of funds designated for Talmudic schools.

Yet, these are not the only concerns that trouble Prime Minister Netanyahu. There remains a risk that the conflict with Hamas could escalate beyond the Gaza Strip, leading to a larger regional war involving Israel, Iran, and the so-called Axis of Resistance (a network of militias backed by Iran). There is an exceptionally high risk of escalation along the Israeli-Lebanese border, where clashes with Hezbollah have been ongoing for months.

Recent events (including Israel's attack on the Iranian consulate in Damascus and the Iranian retaliatory strike against Israel) highlight that the possibility of a broader Israeli-Iranian conflict is a natural and present danger, not merely a theoretical scenario.

Netanyahu is the most enduring Prime Minister in the history of Israel, having served for over 16 years. Domestically and internationally, he evokes strong opinions. Despite numerous controversies, his significant political skill, allowing him to remain at the pinnacle of Israeli politics for so long, is undeniable.

However, the ongoing crisis could challenge even someone as "unsinkable" as Netanyahu.