Historical solar storms warn of future blackout risk
Approximately 9,200 years ago, the Earth was struck by an intense solar storm. Scientists are now highlighting that humanity is not equipped today for a potential recurrence of such an event.
Solar storms can lead to significant disruptions in the operation of satellites, electronic devices, and power outages. In a worst-case scenario, society may be cast into darkness for years. Despite the frequency of these phenomena, public awareness about them remains insufficient.
Thus far, there have been no storms strong enough to incapacitate the world, but in pre-electrification times, there were storms that could cause chaos today. Research published in "Nature Communications" in 2022 reveals that a powerful storm occurred roughly 9,200 years ago, which is concerning, particularly since it happened during a period of solar activity minimum, a cycle occurring every 11 years.
Lack of contingency plans
This discovery suggests that dangerous solar storms can occur unexpectedly, even when solar activity appears low. Unfortunately, no remedies against such phenomena have been developed, and humanity has not formulated effective action plans for such an eventuality.
These enormous storms are currently not sufficiently included in risk assessments. It is of the utmost importance to analyze what these events could mean for today’s technology and how we can protect ourselves – stated study co-author Raimund Muscheler from Lund University in Sweden.
In extreme cases, such storms could damage key components of the global power grid, such as large transformers, which take up to 15 years to build and cannot be easily replaced in case of failure.
Only two countries, Germany and South Korea, produce them for export. Each transformer weighs hundreds of tons and would require reinforced bridges and widened roads to transport. In North America, only a handful of vehicles are capable of moving them – points out Dr. Peter Pry, executive director at the Task Force on National and Homeland Security, which advises the US Congress on national security issues.
The need for further research
Currently, satellites can directly monitor solar flares, but discovering storms from past times requires intensive research. Researchers focus on searching for cosmogenic radionuclides, radioactive isotopes formed by atmospheric collisions of charged solar particles with elements.
These can be tracked in natural records such as tree rings and ice cores. The analysis of cores from Antarctica and Greenland conducted by researchers revealed an unusual increase in beryllium-10 and chlorine-36 about 9,200 years ago, indicating a powerful solar storm during that period.
Scientists emphasise the need for further research to detect previous extreme storms, hoping to discover a pattern in the occurrence of such events.
