France reignites interest in short-range ballistic missiles
Ballistic missiles were emblematic of the Cold War era. Following its conclusion, their primary function is strategic deterrence. However, with the INF Treaty now a distant memory, short-range ballistic missiles are regaining popularity. France has recently declared its intention to develop such weapons.
28 November 2024 15:34
According to the French magazine "Challenges," Paris is "exploring the possibility" of developing its ballistic missile with a range exceeding 620 miles. Although the specifics of these French efforts have not yet been disclosed, the country has previously examined options related to the American HIMARS system and the Indian Pinaka in pursuit of a successor to the currently operated M270 MLRS multiple rocket launchers.
On 30 October, François Cormier-Bouligeon of the pro-presidential alliance Together for the Republic, speaking before the National Assembly, highlighted insights from conflicts in Ukraine and the Middle East, stating that "(…) very long-range strike capabilities, such as land-based ballistic missiles, constitute strategic weapons for our adversaries."
Aside from intercontinental, strategic missiles with nuclear warheads, France does not currently possess conventional ballistic weapons of a shorter range. Its endeavours reflect a wider trend, as this category of weaponry, nearly eradicated by past disarmament treaties, is experiencing a resurgence.
Interest is resurging in both ballistic missiles, which have propulsion systems active only during launch, and cruise missiles, which are powered throughout their flight path.
The renaissance of long-range weapons
This shift is evidenced by a letter of intent signed during the NATO summit in Washington by Poland, France, Germany, and Italy concerning developing "capabilities for precise long-range strikes". An increasing number of countries are striving to acquire or regain the means to strike targets at distances of 620 miles or more.
This resurgence also involves the United States, which, despite possessing ATACMS missiles, is advancing the development of Precision Strike Missiles (PrSM) with an anticipated range of 435 miles.
South Korea is similarly expanding its long-range arsenal through indigenous weapon development. Seoul is establishing the capability to deliver warheads akin to those of a country forming a nuclear triad.
South Korea already has land-based (like Hyunmu-5) and sea-based (Hyunmoo 4 on KSS-III submarines) ballistic missiles and sea-based Chonryong cruise missiles. It is conducting intensive research into long-range air weaponry. South Korea diverges from atomic power only in that conventional warheads currently equip these weapons.
The INF Treaty and the reconstruction of lost capabilities
American Pershing ballistic missiles were a quintessential symbol of the Cold War. Armed with nuclear warheads, these missiles, with an initial range of about 435 miles and, in the Pershing II variant, 1,120 miles, were designed in the 1980s to offer NATO the capability to dismantle not the adversary's major cities and industrial hubs but rather its military forces, logistics, or communication nodes.
The Soviet Union possessed comparable weapons and was stationed in allied countries. This arsenal of ballistic missiles was complemented by cruise missiles like the BGM-109G Gryphon, a land-based variation of the Tomahawk missile, as well as short-range ballistic missiles such as the American MGM-52 Lance or the French Pluton.
This arsenal was dismantled due to the INF Treaty, and the international détente following the Cold War's end led the West to forgo ballistic weapons with ranges under 310 miles.
The informal Missile Technology Control Regime (MTCR) further limited the range of weapons available on the international market, which is why many export versions of weapons possess ranges slightly below 186 miles.
The expansion of long-range arsenals
While NATO countries were reducing their capabilities, the remainder of the world was actively bridging the technical divide. Consequently, nations including China, India, Pakistan, North Korea, and Iran now maintain impressive—and continually expanding—stockpiles of ballistic missiles across various classes, from short-range to medium, intermediate, and intercontinental missiles.
Israel has recently become acutely aware of the significant threat posed by this arsenal. Although the Iranian attack on the country in October 2024 is frequently depicted as a significant success for the Israeli defence apparatus—often incorrectly associated solely with the Iron Dome (the lowest defence layer)—Jerusalem harbours genuine concerns.
The effectiveness of Israel's defence, bolstered by substantial U.S. forces in the region, was recorded at 96 per cent. Nonetheless, 4 per cent of the missiles—and therefore at least a few—reached their intended targets. Several ballistic missiles launched during the Iranian attack this April also reached their destinations. That they caused minimal damage was owing to their conventional warheads.