Israel's shadow war: Targeting Iran's nuclear ambition

Israel's attack on Lebanon and Iran's missile response raise fears that Israel's next target could be Iranian nuclear installations. Although geopolitical experts often discuss this in the context of rocket strikes or air raids conducted by the Israeli air force, it is worth noting the attack has been ongoing for a long time.

Although it usually hasn't taken the form of open military actions, it has effectively hindered Iran from building its nuclear capability. Its targets include both infrastructure and scientists and military commanders involved in pursuing the Iranian nuclear programme.

In August 2011, an Iranian court sentenced 23-year-old Majid Jamali Fashi to death. According to Iranian media, he was tried for "war against God."

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The sentence stated that the convict travelled to Israel, where he was trained and received $120,000. The victim of the bomb attack, of which Jamali Fashi was accused, was quantum physicist Masoud Ali Mohammadi from Tehran University. The scientist died while leaving his own house in a booby-trapped motorcycle explosion, and Iranian government media accused the United States and Israel of organising the attack.

Washington unequivocally denied these reports, while Jerusalem did not comment. The sentence on Majid Jamali Fashi was carried out a year later. Why did the physicist become a target of the attack?

Although there were many uncertainties surrounding his death, some Western sources, like Time, considered the scientist's involvement in Iran's nuclear programme, which threatened Israel, as a probable cause. Masoud Ali Mohammadi is widely regarded as the first in a series of victims connected to work on Iran's nuclear programme.

It is likely inaccurate, and Israeli diversion began much earlier.

As early as 2007, Ardeshir Hosseinpour, an Iranian scientist working on nuclear energy at the Isfahan Centre, died under unexplained circumstances. Iranian media reported that the physicist accidentally suffocated during sleep due to a faulty gas heater.

However, an analysis by the American think tank Stratfor, citing Israeli intelligence sources, was unequivocal: Ardeshir Hosseinpour died because of his involvement in the Iranian nuclear programme, and Israel was responsible for his death.

Another known target of "unknown assailants" was Fereydoon Abbasi Davani, who survived the attack with minor injuries. His role was evident, as in February 2011, he took charge of Iran's nuclear programme.

By 2012, at least four other researchers, all involved in nuclear-related research, had died, like Prof. Majid Ali Shahriari, who was shot through his car window by a passing motorcyclist.

On the same day, another prominent scientist, Fereydoon Abbasi Davani, was attacked similarly. He emerged unscathed from the attack and soon became the chairman of the National Council for Nuclear Energy.

Shortly after that, a passenger Tupolev-134 crashed in Russia. Although there were no Iranians on board, five Russian physicists who had worked at the Bushehr nuclear power plant in Iran were. However, a Russian investigation did not find sabotage to be the cause of the crash.

The series of scientist deaths is compounded by issues caused by the Stuxnet computer worm in industrial installations. It was designed to activate after infecting a computer network upon detecting specific types of controllers - exactly those used by Iran to control centrifuges needed to enrich uranium.

Modifications to the controllers in 984 devices at the Natanz facility led to increased centrifuge speeds and, consequently, their damage. However, it is unclear what losses the Iranian nuclear programme suffered because of this, though former Mossad chief Meir Dagan once stated that Stuxnet delayed the creation of an Iranian atomic bomb by three years.

It is known, however, that shortly after Stuxnet's activation, Iran began working on enriching uranium through gas diffusion instead of centrifuges. An expert in this field was Prof. Mostafa Ahmadi Roshan, but before his work could yield tangible results, an unidentified motorcyclist attached a magnetic bomb to his car and fled. The explosion killed both the Iranian scientist and his driver.

The few years of silence following these attacks were the calm before the storm. In November 2020, Mohsen Fakhrizadeh, head of the military's research and innovation department responsible for nuclear weapons development, was assassinated.

The Iranian was killed despite strong, constant protection. A remotely controlled weapon - a modified FN MAG machine gun - was most likely used in his shooting. After confirming the target's identity via video transmission, the remote weapon opened fire on the car Fakhrizadeh was travelling in.

In addition to attacks on nuclear programme staff, Israel has already signalled the possibility of an attack on the research centre in Isfahan. In April 2024, Israel attacked its area with drones and aerial missiles without causing significant damage.

According to experts, this was Jerusalem's intention at the time - the attack was meant to signal to Iran that its key research centre was within range of Israeli weapons and that it could be destroyed in the event of further conflict escalation.

The coming days will show whether this will indeed occur, but even now - based on the series of killings and the dangers associated with working in Isfahan - the seemingly peaceful job of a nuclear physicist in Iran must be considered a high-risk profession.