Fall of Assad: Syria's uncertain future under al‑Jaulani
The Assad regime has fallen. Who is the new leader of Syria, Abu Muhammad al-Jaulani, and in what direction will the country go under his rule? His fighters' sentiments are not focused on governing the state but rather on the continuation of jihad or holy war. This is a significant problem for the region, Paweł Rakowski, an expert on the Middle East.
On Sunday, Syrian rebels announced that they had taken control of the country. Two organisations participated in the action: HTS, an Islamist group, Hayat Tahrir al-Sham, led by Abu Muhammad al-Jaulani, and the Syrian National Army. There are claims that Turkey helped coordinate the rebels' offensive and supported it. However, Turkish authorities officially deny any involvement in the recent events in Syria.
The Islamist group Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), which captured Damascus on Sunday and toppled Bashar al-Assad's regime, is currently the strongest military faction of the Syrian opposition. On 27th November, HTS launched a large-scale offensive against government forces. In the first week of fighting, the organisation captured most of Aleppo and expanded its sphere of influence in the north.
Who is al-Jaulani?
The leader of HTS is Abu Muhammad al-Jaulani. In the past, he fought with al-Qaeda, but now he distances himself from radicalism, declaring a departure from jihadism and advocating respect for minority rights. HTS is still designated as a terrorist group by the US, EU, and Turkey.
"Abu Muhammad al-Jaulani is a figure known in the Middle East and Syria itself. The issue is that his reputation doesn't inspire optimism. In the early 21st century, as a young man, he fought in al-Qaeda in Iraq, later was arrested by the Americans and imprisoned. After his release, he returned to Syria. When the war broke out, he was one of the leading Islamists who transformed it from a secular and civic rebellion into a jihad," says Paweł Rakowski, a Middle East expert, to Wirtualna Polska.
He recalls that al-Jaulani founded the Syrian branch of al-Qaeda, responsible for many atrocities in Syria, including the occupation of Maaloula, a Christian town near Damascus. "His career was linked with the Islamic State. Due to conflicts, al-Jaulani split from ISIS. He and his faction eliminated some of his companions. From around 2017, he was in the northern Syrian orbit. And as is known, northern Syria was largely 'penetrated' by Turkish services," comments the interlocutor.
The essence of the civil war in Syria was the lack of a leader who could unify the nation for 13 years.
"During the war that has been ongoing since 2011, there were about 120 different militias or organisations, leading to chaos. This was very advantageous for Assad, who didn't even have a partner for negotiations. Al-Jaulani is a man with an unclear biography, officially a highly educated man and a Syrian. His name suggests that his family came from the Golan Heights, captured in 1967 by Israel. As a result, about 100,000 Syrians had to flee. He himself was probably born in Saudi Arabia, where his father worked and amassed wealth. Later, he spent a decade in Syria, in one of the better districts of Damascus. These facts are very important for Syrians, ensuring that the power coming from outside has connections with Syria," claims the Middle East expert in an interview.
On Friday, before Assad's escape, Jaulani gave an interview to CNN, which - as the station emphasises - took place in broad daylight and with minimal security. He stated that the goal of the Syrian rebel coalition is to ultimately topple President Bashar al-Assad. He discussed plans to create a government based on institutions and a "council chosen by the people".
On Sunday, the HTS leader stated that former Prime Minister Muhammad Gazi al-Jalali would oversee Syrian state institutions in the transition period until they are officially transferred to the new authority. Reuters indicates that this signalled a desire to ensure an orderly transition after the rebels announced the end of Assad's rule.
Al-Jaulani is entering Syria, officially without external ties.
"He is still perceived by the US as a terrorist, and there is a $10 million reward for his head. However, a few days ago, giving an interview to CNN was very significant and symbolic. When the rebel offensive began, the Middle East was still behind Assad, but started to tilt towards al-Jaulani. After Aleppo fell, and al-Assad was losing, the Americans – by the CNN interview – signalled whom they were backing," evaluates Paweł Rakowski.
He recalls that the rebel offensive in Syria started a few hours after Israel's ceasefire with Hezbollah.
"So, it's hard to talk about coincidence here," the expert emphasises.
There is another aspect, related to possible scenarios concerning governance by HTS.
"From my observations of the world of radical Islam, I have many concerns about HTS and al-Jaulani. HTS is not solely a Syrian component, and this is a very significant problem. It's not like Hamas, with tight leadership and strong discipline. According to various estimates, it's an alliance of about 27 different militias and groups or factions, under the nominal, united authority of al-Jaulani. This means HTS could 'fall apart' at any moment," evaluates Rakowski.
He provides images from Sunday as an example, parallel to al-Jaulani's measured speech.
"Already his organisation's 'soldiers' began threatening Israel and Saudi Arabia. This is dangerous. If al-Jaulani wanted to implement some form of governance, the sentiments among his fighters are not focusing on state governance but on the continuation of jihad, or holy war. This is a considerable problem for the region. The world's reactions already show a lack of trust in the rebels. Instead of being a constructive Islamic party like Hezbollah, HTS could face the spectre of anarchy. As a result, Syria could turn into a second Somalia, with an endless civil war," summarises the Middle East expert.
