Assad regime falls: A new balance in the Middle East emerges
During the night from Saturday to Sunday, the Assad regime in Syria fell. It took just 11 days of offensive for the hereditary dictatorship, which had brutally ruled the country for 54 years, to collapse. In the coming days and months, there will be a shift in the balance of power in the Middle East. The Russians and Iranians have suffered blows. The Israelis, not waiting for developments, entered Syria.
In a symbolic gesture of taking power on Sunday morning, the rebels escorted the Syrian Prime Minister, Mohammad Djalali, out of an office in Damascus. At the same time, public television broadcast a statement from the rebels about the fall of the regime and the creation of a new, united Syria respecting ethnic and religious diversity.
Just two weeks ago, it seemed that Bashar Assad had won the civil war thanks to the support of Iran and Russia. However, a sudden offensive by rebels from the north-western border of the country, backed and trained for years by Turkey, broke the regime. First, Aleppo fell, which was shocking in itself. Then the cities of Hama and Homs fell, which effectively cut Damascus off from the coastal provinces where Russian bases are located and blocked the route for transferring arms from Iran to Hezbollah in Lebanon.
Events then unfolded rapidly. The city of Daraa in the south rose again, where the civil war began on 18 March 2011. The rebels quickly moved north, eventually capturing Damascus.
Rebels armed and trained by the Americans in the al Tanf enclave near the border with Jordan also began their march. Their target was Palmyra and the weapon depots located there. In this way, the rebels outpaced the re-emerging militias of the so-called Islamic State, which appeared in the central Syrian desert and also eyed the weapons and ammunition from Palmyra.
Meanwhile, Kurds from the eastern outskirts seized the Abu Kamal border crossing at the border with Iraq and the city of Deir Ezzor, practically cutting off Iran from Damascus and Beirut. In the north, Turkish-backed rebel forces that broke the regime's army moved south, partially displacing the Kurds as well. Contrary to forecasts, the regime enclave in the coastal provinces of Latakia and Tartus did not hold. In both cities, the Assad monuments were toppled in the morning.
The defeat of Russia is a fact
The fate of the dictator is unclear. There were already rumours about his family escaping to Russia, and Bashar himself reportedly found refuge at a Russian airbase. Whether and where he left the country at the time of writing this article was unknown. What is clear, however, is that Russia's position is also shaky. Moscow, involved in Ukraine, could not support the weak regime as it did in September 2015, when Russian bombers saved Assad and brutally crushed the rebellion in subsequent cities in the following years. The militias defending them capitulated on the condition of relocating to the province of Idlib in the northwest of the country, from where they now launched a blow.
Russians are losing the port of Latakia and the Hmeimim base. It is possible they may no longer be able to use the naval base in Tartus. This will hinder Moscow's cooperation with valuable economic allies in Libya and partners in African countries. Iran is also a loser here, having lost its most important allies built over years within just a few months.
Israel triumphs
Israel has significantly weakened Hezbollah in Lebanon, which will find it very difficult to rebuild forces without a land connection to Iran. After dismantling Hamas in Gaza and defeating Hezbollah and the fall of Assad, Israelis even talk about breaking the "ring of fire" built around them by Iran.
From the perspective of the government in Jerusalem, what is happening is an opportunity to expel Iran but also a risk associated with the takeover of power by Islamists originating from al Qaeda, even though their leader, Mohamed al-Julani, speaks of respecting minorities.
Israelis, fearful of war on the border with the Golan Heights, annexed by them in 1981, entered the UN theoretically controlled buffer zone in the Syrian part of the Golan. This violates the terms of the armistice following the Yom Kippur War in 1973, but the Israelis want to secure themselves as much as possible. They are concerned about chemical weapons now falling into the hands of rebels. Hence the recent airstrikes on these weapons depots near Damascus and the possibility of continuing such airstrikes.
Assad has fallen. What next?
The fall of Assad brings hopes comparable to the Arab Spring of 2010, which resulted in the Syrian civil war. It is still too early to predict its end.
Syria is a devastated country, where approximately 600,000 people have been killed and half of the over 20 million citizens have become refugees abroad or internally displaced. The only group emerging from the civil war relatively unscathed are the Druze, fortified in their highlands in the south of the country.
Christians, who largely cooperated with the regime, fear for their future despite assurances from al-Julani. Even the so-called Islamic State is raising its head, and the Kurds continue to fight for their rights, which irritates Turkey. Neighbouring countries, namely Turkey, Israel, Iran, as well as the Gulf States, are playing their interests here, similar to Russia and the USA.
It is still unclear what the policy of the second Trump administration will look like, what the Iranians and Russians will do now, not to mention the countless galaxy of militias, organisations, and communities fighting each other for a decade. Without peace and security, there will be no question of rebuilding Syria, which will also require a great effort from the international community. Therefore, today, one can only rejoice in the fall of the bloody regime, which gives a glimmer of hope for a better future, the realisation of which remains a great unknown.
