China's Taiwan maneuvers heighten global tensions

The American military officer, speaking at the Honolulu Defence Forum, warned that Beijing, by sending spy balloons, ships, and aeroplanes near Taiwan, is attempting "a forced unification of Taiwan with the mainland." He also argued that "China's increasingly complex multi-domain operations indicate clear intentions and growing capabilities," and that the activities around Taiwan are transforming from manoeuvres into real probes.

Professor Maciej Gaca,, admitted that he approaches such positions cautiously. "Indeed, the Chinese are significantly increasing their operational capabilities and expanding every possible arsenal, including the naval arsenal. However, they do not hide that for 30 years, their primary goal has been to access the open Indo-Pacific, and they treat the East China Sea and South China Sea - at least rhetorically - as their internal seas and try to impose such thinking on the international community," he explained.

"I do not see any change in this approach. The expansion of China's military might is a process that has been ongoing for years, and the Chinese will not be interested in acquiring Taiwan militarily because it would mean the destruction of the island, its infrastructure, everything that is valuable from their point of view," added the Sinologist.

However, Professor Gaca noted that the increase in China's dominance in the East China Sea and South China Sea area could lead to the transformation of these waters into internal seas. Especially since, in the case of the South China Sea, China claims almost 90 per cent of this area (which was rejected by the Hague Tribunal in 2016). Such a change in the perception of this region would lead to the breaking of, for instance, international treaties regarding navigation on open waters.

"Let's not forget that a significant portion of exports to Europe, Japan, Korea, and the North pass through the Taiwan Strait. Therefore, there is no agreement in the region for such a situation. The United States, South Korea, Japan, and the Philippines are interested in countering China's expansion. As a result, there are regular demonstrations of power – warships from various countries - American, Japanese, German, French, British, and Australian - sail through this region, emphasising the idea of freedom of navigation. The Chinese respond to these actions by sending their units, claiming they are internal waters. The situation is further complicated by China's historical claim to the so-called 'nine-dash line,' based on maps from the Ming dynasty (14th-17th century)," explained the expert.

"In response to growing tensions in the region, the USA has renewed agreements concerning leasing lands for existing military bases and has agreed to the construction of new facilities in the Philippines and near Taiwan. The military presence in Okinawa, the trilateral cooperation between the USA and Japan and South Korea, and explicit declarations by Japanese politicians about involvement in Taiwan's defence are strengthening the deterrence strategy against China," he summarised.

The latest Chinese exercises near Taiwan - "Joint Sword-2024B" - occurred in December 2024. These manoeuvres were Beijing's response to a foreign visit by the President of Taiwan, Lai Ching-te, which included stops in the United States. Chinese maritime and air operations were extensive, surpassing previous exercises from May and October 2024, when Beijing engaged a record number of 125 aircraft, including fighter jets, helicopters, drones, aircraft carrier Liaoning, and numerous ships. These actions were intended to demonstrate China's ability to potentially blockade Taiwan and deter further diplomatic contacts with other countries.

Professor Gaca points out, however, that Beijing now has to carefully calculate the balance of gains and losses both geopolitically and militarily in such initiatives. "Open, aggressive actions would be condemned on the international stage and undermine Beijing's narrative, which tries to attract Global South countries. It would also show neighbouring countries that China can use force at any moment to expand its influence, which would further increase regional tensions," he noted. "Therefore, it can be assumed that China applies a strategy of pressure, building up its military arsenal to show the capability of quickly taking over Taiwan. However, their goal is not direct invasion but using this threat as a negotiating tool," he added.

Similar to China's claims to the so-called "nine-dash line," military contacts between the USA and Taiwan are not new. They existed even during the Clinton and Obama presidencies, and their intensification occurred after 2017 when several major American arms companies opened their offices in Taiwan, the Sinologist recalled.

Taiwan conducts various military transactions with the United States, and recently, there have been reports of plans for large arms purchases from the USA. Reuters, citing three different sources familiar with the matter, reports that Taiwan is already in talks with Washington on this matter. A contract worth £5 billion to £7 billion, which will likely include cruise missiles as well as rockets for the HIMARS launchers, is on the table.

This makes Taiwan a strategic area of influence for the USA, and the American presence has more than one explanation. The island's location blocks China's expansion into the Pacific, and Taiwan strengthens the USA's alliance system in East Asia. Additionally—often overlooked—it is a key producer of semiconductors. The Taiwanese company TSMC supplies advanced chips used in the American technology and defence industries.

Therefore, the USA exports its goods and imports solutions critical to its defence industry. However, it should not be forgotten that the United States still practices a policy of strategic ambiguity. This means that the US does not officially side with Taiwan but emphasises that changes to the island's status must result from a peaceful agreement.

Read also: